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ES-power
May 25, 2022

Technical rebound of the emissions market

Although each with little change from the previous day, the NWE power spot prices were mixed yesterday, slightly down in Belgium and the Netherlands but up in Germany and France amid forecasts of weaker wind and nuclear availability. The day-ahead prices averaged 172.83€/MWh over the four countries, -0.965€/MWh day-on-day. The…
ES-gas
May 25, 2022

Prices up on concerns about lower pipeline supply

European gas prices were up overall yesterday. Notably, Norwegian flows continued to be impacted by the unplanned outage at the Troll gas field, although they increased slightly to 308 mm cm/day on average, compared to 305 mm cm/day on Monday. Russian flows were also very slightly up, averaging 209 mm…
ES-oil
May 25, 2022

Oil stable, between tight supply and risk of slowdown

Oil prices remained stable on Tuesday : ICE Brent front month ended the day with a +0.1% gain to $113.56/b. And, NYMEX WTI front month price settled -0.5% lower at $109.77/b. At start, the oil market went down as speakers at World Economic Forum expressed concerns about the path of…
ES-economy
May 25, 2022

The market revises its scenario on the Fed and the ECB

This is at least what seems to indicate the very clear rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate to over 1.07. We already mentioned it yesterday: the 2-year rate spread is tightening and this is probably the main driver of this rise. If we look closely at the evolution of interest rate…
ES-gas
May 24, 2022

Bearish sentiment continued to prevail in the carbon and power markets

The plummeting gas, coal and carbon prices amid comfortable supply and weakening demand pressure the European power spot prices yesterday. The day-ahead prices indeed faded by 17.74€/MWh from the previous day in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands to reach 173.79€/MWh. The falling fuel complex drove the power forward prices…
ES-economy
May 24, 2022

Strong rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate

It seems that as soon as Mrs Lagarde speaks, the euro rises. This was the case yesterday and it is happening again this morning after an interview with Bloomberg. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose from 1.0550 to over 1.07. What did she say? That the ECB would probably raise its key…
ES-gas
May 24, 2022

Spot prices up on lower pipeline supply

European spot gas prices increased yesterday, supported by lower pipeline supply. Indeed, Norwegian flows dropped to 305 mm cm/day on average (compared to 325 mm cm/day on Friday), due to an unplanned outage at the Troll gas field. Russian flows were also lower, averaging 208 mm cm/day, compared to 227…
ES-oil
May 24, 2022

Bullish and bearish forces compensated, oil was stable

Oil started the week stable: on ICE, Brent front month price went 0.7% up to $113.42/b. On NYMEX, WTI for July delivery was stable: settling $0.01 higher at $110.29/b. Lingering worries about the state of the economy in the coming months, with a risk of recession that would reduce oil demand,…
ES-economy
May 23, 2022

Oil stable: no major news changes traders’ views

Mixed news from China: Covid cases in Beijing are back to a record high… at 99. The number seems ridiculously low, but the trend is worrying, especially in the context of the “zero cases” policy. But on the other hand, the President seemed to open the door to at least…
ES-power
May 23, 2022

Commission’s proposal to auction EUAs from MSR continued to pressure the carbon market

The European power spot prices fell below 200€/MWh for today as gas dropping gas and carbon prices combined with forecasts of soaring wind production pressured the market. The day-ahead prices averaged 191.52€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -17.04€/MWh from Friday and -15.73€/MWh week-on-week. The power curve prices ended…
ES-gas
May 23, 2022

Prices weakened on bearish spot fundamentals

European gas prices weakened again on Friday, pressured by weak demand and comfortable supply. While Russian flows were stable, averaging 227 mm cm/day, Norwegian flows were up, to 325 mm cm/day on average, compared to 320 mm cm/day on Thursday. However, the rise in coal prices (+4.61% for API2 1st nearby…
ES-power
May 20, 2022

EUAs extended their fall on fears of additional supply

The European power spot prices inched down yesterday amid weaker clean gas costs and forecasts of lower demand. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 208.56€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -2.66€/MWh day-on-day. The power forward prices posted moderate losses along the curve, weighed by the fading gas markets and…
ES-oil
May 20, 2022

Oil follows equities markets

Oil prices climbed on Thursday, in a volatile trading session. On ICE, Brent for July delivery settled 2.7% higher to $112.04/b, the contract traded between $105.70/b and $112.31/b. On NYMEX, WTI front month made a 2.4% gain to stand at $112.21/b. At start, oil market was dragged lower as stocks continued…
ES-gas
May 20, 2022

Prices down as concerns about payment in rubles abate

European gas prices weakened yesterday. Russian flows increased again, averaging 227 mm cm/day, compared to 218 mm cm/day on Wednesday. Norwegian flows were also up, rebounding to 320 mm cm/day on average, compared to 312 mm cm/day on Wednesday. Comments from Russia Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying yesterday that…
ES-economy
May 20, 2022

Lower credit rates in China

The yo-yoing continues on the markets: after a new decline in the equity markets yesterday and a sharp drop in long term rates (10 years US at 2.86% this morning), the trend was strongly reversed in Asia after Chinese banks lowered by 15bp the 5-year credit rate from 4.6% to 4.45%.…
ES-power
May 19, 2022

EUAs tumbled on Commission’s plan to sell allowances from MSR

The European power spot prices inched up yesterday as the ongoing warm spell strengthened the power demand across the bloc while forecasts of slightly higher wind and hydro production kept prices just below the clean gas costs. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 211.23€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands,…
ES-economy
May 19, 2022

Violent downward correction of the equity markets

US equity markets lost around 4% yesterday. The trend remained very negative in Asia, especially since Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt, which clearly raises the question of possible contagion to other low-income emerging countries, hit by both the downward pressure exerted by the Fed’s monetary tightening on their currencies and by…
ES-oil
May 19, 2022

Oil fell in the wake of equity market

Oil prices went down on Wednesday: ICE Brent for July delivery dropped by 2.5%, to settle at $109.11/b and NYMEX WTI for June delivery also decreased by 2.5% to $109.59/b. The increasing fears about economic growth and inflation knocked oil price down from a six-week high following the tumbling equity markets (see…
ES-gas
May 19, 2022

Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed yesterday. Russian flows increased slightly, averaging 218 mm cm/day, compared to 213 mm cm/day on Tuesday. By contrast, Norwegian flows dropped to 312 mm cm/day on average, compared to 325 mm cm/day on Tuesday, due to planned maintenance. While uncertainty on the payment of Russian…
ES-oil
May 18, 2022

Powell’s comments drive price lower

Oil prices fell yesterday: ICE Brent for July delivery closed at $111.93/b, making a -2% loss, while NYMEX WTI first nearby prices settled at $112.40/b, down -1.6%. For the first time since May 2020, NYMEX WTI prices traded higher than ICE Brent prices. The market moved down at the end…
ES-power
May 18, 2022

ENVI’s vote for stricter EU ETS reforms lifted the carbon prices

The European power spot prices slightly faded yesterday, pressured by forecasts of stronger wind and solar generation but still supported by the high demand induced by the current warm spell. The day-ahead prices averaged 207.14€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -16.97€/MWh day-on-day. On the curve, most power contracts…
ES-gas
May 18, 2022

Prices up as uncertainty remains on the payment in rubles

European gas prices were up yesterday, supported by the uncertainty on the payment of Russian gas in rubles. After Brussels released on Monday updated guidance on how companies can legally keep buying Russian gas, a European Commission spokesman said yesterday opening accounts in rubles at a Russian bank to pay…
ES-economy
May 18, 2022

Sharp rise in interest rates and fall in the US dollar

Almost all the activity indicators published yesterday surprised on the upside, which supported risky assets and caused a sharp decline in the US dollar, in the wake, let us recall, of good news from China. But they also reinforced expectations of monetary tightening and led to a rise in bond…
ES-power
May 17, 2022

Carbon prices edged up ahead of ENVI’s vote

The European power spot prices rose yesterday amid forecasts of higher demand induced by the current warm spell, and dropping wind output. The day-ahead prices averaged 224.12€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +16.86€/MWh day-on-day. The power forward prices extended losses along the curve, tracking the bearish gas market…
ES-gas
May 17, 2022

Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed yesterday, torn between conflicting fundamentals. Russian flows dropped yesterday, averaging 221 mm cm/day, compared to 225 mm cm/day on Friday. Monthly auctions for gas transportation capacity saw no rights allocated for transport through Ukraine for June delivery, while month-ahead auctions on the Yamal pipeline were…
ES-oil
May 17, 2022

The end of the lockdown in Shanghai drives prices higher

Oil benchmarks started the week on a gain. ICE Brent climbed +2.4% to $114.24/b while NYMEX WTI front month price increased by 3.4% to settle at $114.20/b. The lockdown in China and the weak economic indicators released yesterday dragged oil, as the economic activity in the country seems more and more…
ES-economy
May 17, 2022

Markets anticipate the recovery of activity in China

Three days without a new case of Covid in Shanghai. According to the rules established by the local authorities, this should open the way to a gradual lifting of the restrictive measures imposed for weeks and thus to a resumption of activity. As we suspected yesterday, the markets were not…
ES-power
May 16, 2022

China pushed oil higher on Friday and lower this morning

Oil prices climbed on Friday: ICE Brent front month jumped by 3.8% to $111.55/b while NYMEX WTI gained 4.1% to $110.49/b. That is the highest closing price for WTI since March 25,  between Monday and Friday NYMEX WTI inched 0.7% higher whereas ICE Brent went down by 0.9%. On refined…
ES-power
May 13, 2022

Power prices soared on bullish gas market while EUAs took a breath

The European power spot prices observed limited changes yesterday as hefty wind production kept most prices under the clean coal costs while the French followed once again a different path and slightly increased, buoyed by higher clean gas costs which offset the forecasts of weaker power demand. The day-ahead prices…
ES-oil
May 13, 2022

Oil stable as market receives mixed signals

Oil trade sideways on Tuesday: NYMEX WTI front month went +0.4% up to end the trading session at $106.13/b. ICE Brent front month closed stable, losing $0.06/b to $107.45/b. The trading session summarized the recent mixed prices moves. The gloomy economic situation (made of inflation, hawkish policy at the Fed and…
ES-gas
May 13, 2022

Prices up after Russian flows through the second entry point in Ukraine dropped

Supported by rising concerns on Russian supply, European gas prices were up overall yesterday, in a context of persistent decorrelation between day-ahead and month-ahead prices (see the Gas & Coal Weekly Report published yesterday). Indeed, Russian flows through Ukraine at the Velke Kapusany entry point dropped again yesterday (averaging 58 mm cm/day,…
ES-economy
May 13, 2022

Industrial activity plunged in March in the euro area

Financial markets were still dominated by pessimism yesterday, as evidenced by the sharp rise in the US dollar, with the exchange rate against the euro plunging to 1.0354, close to the January 2017 low. The trend seems to have reversed with a new interview with the Fed Chairman. It seems to be…
ES-power
May 12, 2022

Mixed power prices in Europe, strong volatility in the EUA market

Power prices in Europe continued to diverge on Wednesday amid a volatile session for EUA prices and opposing trends for gas and coal prices. Warm river concerns supported Q3-22 prices in France while lingering dry weather widened further the Italian premium compared to France for June delivery. Falling wind power…
ES-economy
May 12, 2022

US inflation slows less than expected, reinforcing recession fears

The US inflation rate did fall in April, but only from 8.5% to 8.3%. The core inflation rate fell from 6.5% to 6.2%. In detail, the sharp acceleration in many service prices, aerospace prices and rents shows that the Fed will not be able to rely on this decline in inflation…
ES-gas
May 12, 2022

Prices torn between high LNG supply and the drop in Russia supply through Ukraine

European gas prices dropped yesterday as the impact of the force majeure on the Sokhranivka entry point faded somewhat. But, physically, Russian flows through Ukraine at the Velke Kapusany entry point weakened further yesterday, averaging 67 mm cm/day, compared to 81 mm cm/day on Tuesday, driving total Russian flows to…
ES-oil
May 12, 2022

War in Ukraine triggers a rebound

Oil made a strong rebound on Wednesday: ICE Brent front month climbed by +4.9% to $107.51/b while NYMEX WTI front month gained +6.0% to settle at $105.71/b. Oil market was driven by the tensions related to the war in Ukraine. First as a major pipeline flowing gas from Russia to Europe…
ES-power
May 11, 2022

Falling fuel prices drove the power prices down, but a rebound might loom

The European power spot prices dropped yesterday as the ongoing wind surge offset the weaker clean gas cost and pressured the market. The day-ahead prices averaged 164.69€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -16.22€/MWh day-on-day with only the French prices remaining above the clean coal cost thanks to the…
ES-oil
May 11, 2022

Oil price fall on growth concerns and Hungarian veto

Oil benchmarks continued to drop on Tuesday: ICE Brent front month went -3.3% lower to settle at $102.46/b and  NYMEX WTI front month ended the trading session at $99.76/b, -3.2% lower. Concerns on the state of the economy are growing with Chinese’s lockdowns, the comments of the Fed to further increase…
ES-gas
May 11, 2022

Prices up after Russian flows through Ukraine drop

European gas prices rebounded yesterday after one of the two entry points for Russian gas transit through Ukraine stopped operating (see the news we released yesterday afternoon). And actually, Russian flows through Ukraine dropped to 81 mm cm/day on average yesterday, compared to 92 mm cm/day on Monday, driving total…
ES-economy
May 11, 2022

Has peak inflation been reached in the US?

Growth concerns continue to drive the markets: after a strong rebound, the US equity indices almost all ended lower yesterday, but a final surge saw the S&P and Nasdaq rise slightly, but not the Dow Jones. The US 10-year yield fell back below 3% and the USD strengthened a little,…
ES-power
May 10, 2022

Weak auction pushed EUAs back below 90€/t

As expected, the European power spot prices weakened yesterday on lower clean fuel costs and forecasts of surging wind output and slightly improved nuclear availability with the Belgian nuclear reactor Tihange 2 (1GW) ramping up to its maximum capacity after hovering at 900MW for a few days. The day-ahead prices…
ES-oil
May 10, 2022

Oil drops on global sell-off

Oil benchmarks slumped yesterday: ICE Brent front month lost -5.7% and ended the day at $105.94/b and NYMEX WTI front month closed -6.1% lower at $103.09/b. European diplomats scrapped the idea to ban European companies to ship Russian oil, as partners (in particular Greece, Malta and Cyprus) were opposed to…
ES-gas
May 10, 2022

Prices extended losses

European gas prices extended losses yesterday, still pressured by weak demand and strong LNG supply. The drop in coal prices (-4.37% for API2 1st nearby prices, -5.89% for Cal 2023 prices) provided additional downward pressure. On the pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows dropped to 311 mm cm/day on average yesterday, compared…
ES-economy
May 10, 2022

The decline in equity markets continues

The equity markets fell sharply again yesterday, particularly US technology stocks (Nasdaq), which dropped another 4.3%. They are down 10% since the Fed’s decision to raise its key rate by 50bp last week (see the last Macro & Oil Weekly Report) and 26% since the beginning of the year. Futures turned around…
ES-power
May 9, 2022

EUAs extended their rally while power short-term prices faded

The European power spot prices continued to however just above 200€/MWh for today, although slightly lower than Friday due the retracing gas market and forecasts of strong solar generation. The day-ahead prices averaged 216.52€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -8.84€/MWh from Friday and -1.88€/MWh week-on-week, but the picture…
ES-oil
May 9, 2022

G7 countries to halt import of Russian oil

Oil benchmarks climbed on Friday : NYMEX WTI front month posted at 1.4% gain to end the week at $109.77/b and ICE Brent front month ended the week 1.3% higher at $112.39/b. Last week, NYMEX WTI climbed by 5.5% and ICE Brent by 5.7%. On Friday, market was pushed up by…
ES-gas
May 9, 2022

Prices torn between comfortable spot fundamentals and concerns on Russian supply

European spot gas prices dropped strongly on Friday, pressured by weak demand and ongoing strong LNG supply while pipeline flows remained stable (Norwegian flows at 320 mm cm/day on average, and Russian flows at 260 mm cm/day on average). The drop in curve prices was more moderate, particularly on the TTF, as…
ES-economy
May 9, 2022

Markets still driven by stagflation fears

The April US jobs report was good with 428k new jobs and a slight slowdown in wages, but this did not stop long rates from continuing to rise (US 10y at 3.13%) and equities from falling, with the US indices recording their 5th consecutive weekly decline, something that has not happened for 11…
ES-power
May 6, 2022

France baseload Cal 23 prices moving closer to the €300/mark

The European power spot prices inched down yesterday on lower clean gas costs and forecasts of slightly increased wind production, temperatures and French nuclear availability. The day-ahead prices averaged 225.36€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -8.71€/MWh day-on-day. In the meantime, the uncertainties around the rouble payment continued to…
ES-gas
May 6, 2022

Prices maintain their uptrend

European gas prices maintained their uptrend overall yesterday, supported by the additional rise in coal prices: +3.20% for API2 1st nearby prices; +3.04% for Cal 2023 prices. (More details are available in the Gas & Coal Weekly Report published yesterday.) Norwegian flows weakened significantly yesterday, to 321 mm cm/day on average, compared to 337…
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