EnergyScan

Energy markets news

ES-gas
July 4, 2022

LNG continues to maintain a price divergence

European gas prices were mixed on Friday: rather down on the markets benefiting from strong LNG supply like the UK NBP, rather up on the others. On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows remained stable on Friday, at 104 mm cm/day on average. Norwegian flows increased to 324 mm cm/day…
ES-economy
July 4, 2022

Less growth in the US, more inflation in Europe and still the Covid in China

Spectacular decline in bond yields: the US 10-year ended the week at 2.88%. It was at 3.47% in mid-June. The German Bund fell from 1.76% to 1.22% in 10 days. The markets are totally focused on the effects of monetary policy tightening and signs of economic slowdown. The dollar continues to…
ES-power
July 4, 2022

Profit taking drove EUAs back in middle of the trading range

The European power spot prices are mixed for today compared to Friday as the dropping nuclear availability and higher clean gas costs supported the French and Belgian prices while the contracts in the Netherlands and Germany faded on forecasts of strong solar generation. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 315.65€/MWh over…
ES-oil
July 4, 2022

OPEC produced less crude in June

On Friday oil benchmarks ended the week on a gain: ICE Brent front month climbed by 2.4%, to settle at $111.64/b while NYMEX WTI traded 2.5% higher and closed at $108.43/b. This was a low-volume day, ahead of a 3-days weekend in the US. This bullish market came as traders…
ES-oil
July 1, 2022

Oil price declined, back to last week level

At the end of a volatile day, oil closed lower. ICE Brent for September delivery (the new front month) settled at $109.03/b, that is a 3.0% loss. And, NYMEX WTI moved -3.7% to $105.76/b. OPEC+ ambassadors decided to raise output quota by 648kb/d in August, in line with expectations. This was the…
ES-gas
July 1, 2022

Prices maintain their bullish trend

European gas prices were up overall yesterday, still supported by uncertainties on Russian supply and LNG flows (following the shutdown of the US Freeport LNG terminal and the disruption of loadings at the Shell’s Prelude FLNG terminal in Australia). The rise in coal prices  (+1.88% for API2 1st nearby prices,…
ES-economy
July 1, 2022

Equity markets down 20-30% in H1

For the first time since the beginning of the year, US consumer spending contracted in real terms (deflated for inflation) in May, amplifying recession fears and the downward correction in equity markets. Overall, the S&P 500 fell by 20.8% in the first half of the year, the Nasdaq by 30% and in Europe, the…
ES-power
July 1, 2022

EU power prices move further north

Bulls kept control of European power curve prices on Thursday with concerns over poor nuclear availability pushing France Q4-22 base and peak prices to new record highs at €790/MWh and €1522.45/MWh respectively at the close on the EEX exchange yesterday. Cal-23 prices hit new highs across Europe as well on the back…
ES-power
June 30, 2022

To infinity and beyond !

Buoyed by the soaring gas and carbon prices, the European power spot prices rebounded yesterday with additional support from forecasts of slightly lower wind output. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 339.51€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +30.60€/MWh day-on-day. The power curve prices posted hefty gains once again on…
ES-gas
June 30, 2022

TTF CAL 2023 prices above the €100/MWh mark

Bulls kept control of European gas prices on Wednesday with concerns over a slowdown in storage injections in June (see below chart) due to the drop in Russian gas flows through the Nordstream 1 pipeline and the shutdown of the Freeport LNG terminal providing strong support. Europe gas stock fullness rate sits…
ES-oil
June 30, 2022

After two weeks, EIA is back and drives prices lower

On Wednesday, oil benchmarks slid, ICE Brent for September delivery closed on a 1.2% loss at $112.45/b and WTI front month settled 1.8% lower to $109.78/b. During the first half of the day, oil gained ground (WTI traded at +2.0% ) but when the Energy Information Administration published its report for two…
ES-economy
June 30, 2022

All against inflation!

The statements of the central bankers meeting in Sintra, from the ECB or the Fed, are unambiguous: the priority is the fight against inflation. They are generally confident that a recession should be avoided, but warn that signs of economic slowdown do not distract them from their main short-term objective. Against…
ES-power
June 29, 2022

EU Council reached an agreement on Fit for 55 package

The European power spot prices eased yesterday, pressured by an early weakness of gas prices and forecasts of stronger wind, solar and hydro generation. The day-ahead prices averaged 308.92€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -23.33€/MWh day-on-day. After a bearish opening, the power forward prices quickly reversed and climbed…
ES-gas
June 29, 2022

Spot prices up, curve prices more mixed

European spot gas prices increased yesterday, supported by higher demand. The trend was more mixed for curve prices which adopt a wait-and-see position in a context of stable Russian flows (at 104 mm cm/day on average). On their side, Norwegian flows increased very slightly to 322 mm cm/day on average…
ES-oil
June 29, 2022

Oil continued to climb

Yesterday oil benchmarks went up: ICE Brent traded 2.5% higher at $117.58/b. While, NYMEX WTI price moved up by 2.0% to $111.76/b. A bullish factor was the final communiqué of the G7 meeting, in which leaders decided to work on a plan to cap the price of oil exported by Russia.…
ES-economy
June 29, 2022

There is renewed concern

The US equity markets fell again yesterday, this time more sharply (-2% for the S&P 500 and -3% for the Nasdaq). The sharp decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is not unrelated to this: it confirms the signs of a downturn in the US labour market already highlighted by the…
ES-oil
June 28, 2022

G7 summit push prices higher

Oil prices moved up yesterday : ICE Brent settled at $115.09/b making a 1.7% gain. And NYMEX WTI front month closed at $109.57/b, that is 1.8% higher. Prices jumped on the G7 summit at Elmau, where country leaders are talking about new sanctions against Russia. Russian oil industry is in…
ES-power
June 28, 2022

Supply concerns continued to buoy the energy complex

The European power spot prices slightly increased yesterday amid higher clean fuel costs and forecasts of stronger power demand combined with easing wind output. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 332.25€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +16.23€/MWh day-on-day and +27.12€/MWh from last week. The power curve prices posted moderate…
ES-gas
June 28, 2022

Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed yesterday, lacking support to climb much higher in a context of stable Russian flows and rebounding Norwegian flows (at 320 mm cm/day on average, compared to 311 mm cm/day on Friday). Day-ahead prices continued to trade in a wide range across European hubs, with NBP spot…
ES-economy
June 28, 2022

Without conviction

US equity markets fell back yesterday as interest rates rose to above 3.2% for the US 10 year. Market participants appear unconvinced as we approach the end of the month, with recession fears pitted against inflation fears to determine what central bank policy will be. US durable goods orders rose again…
ES-gas
June 27, 2022

Prices took a breather, but the trend remains bullish

European gas prices took a breather after their strong rise of the previous session. The drop in coal prices (-3.34% for API2 1st nearby prices, -3.95% for Cal 2023 prices) also exerted downward pressure. For the moment, this decline in coal prices is essentially technical. But a more significant decline…
ES-power
June 27, 2022

EU curve power prices retrace recent gains but tight fundamentals remain supportive

Warmer and calmer weather expectations for the week ahead pushed spot power prices sharply up on Friday amid strong coal and gas prices. Day-ahead prices hence averaged 316.02€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +27€/MWh day-on-day. On the curve, most contracts retraced some of the strong gains recorded earlier…
ES-oil
June 27, 2022

G7 leaders talk about Russian Oil

On Friday oil benchmarks moved up. ICE Brent gained 2.8% to settle at $113.12/b, while NYMEX WTI front month went 3.2% higher and closed at $107.62/b. This move can be seen as a rebound, after the recent decline of oil prices due to the macroeconomic outlook. Indeed, the market is tight with…
ES-economy
June 27, 2022

Downward revisions in expectations of monetary tightening

The rebound in risky assets that began on Thursday after the publication of sharply lower PMIs was amplified on Friday after the revised figures from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey showed a drop in inflation expectations. The S&P 500 was up 3.1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 2.8%. The EUR/USD exchange…
ES-power
June 24, 2022

Increased hedging drove the carbon prices up

The European power spot prices faded yesterday amid forecasts of improving nuclear availability, a sudden surge of wind and hydro production and decreasing power demand. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 289.05€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -22.64€/MWh day-on-day. The sharp bullish rally continued on the gas and power…
ES-economy
June 24, 2022

Germany triggers the second stage of its national gas emergency plan

Risks of energy shortages came back to the fore on Thursday after Germany triggered the second step of its emergency gas plan with the German economy minister Robert Habeck warning of a potential “Lehman Brother effect” in the energy sector in case of a full cut in Russian gas supply.…
ES-oil
June 24, 2022

Oil price continued to drop

On Thursday, oil prices were down. ICE Brent front month moved 1.5% lower to settle at $110.05/b and NYMEX WTI went 1.8% down to settle at $104.27/b. Yesterday was a choppy trading session, oil market did not have a clear trend and moved up and down, between $102.32/b and $/b107.05…
ES-gas
June 24, 2022

Prices supported by emergency measures taken by Germany

European gas prices increased yesterday, supported by the additional measures taken by Germany to tackle the gas crisis. Indeed, Germany has declared an “alert” notice, the second of the three stages of the emergency plan, which allows suppliers in theory to pass on higher costs to consumers to limit gas…
ES-power
June 23, 2022

EU Parliament finally agreed on common position for ETS revision

The European power spot prices reverted yesterday, the French and German day-ahead prices decreasing on forecasts of higher nuclear availability and wind output while prices rebounded in Belgium and the Netherlands amid falling solar production and Belgian nuclear availability. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 311.69€/MWh over the four countries, -2.45€/MWh…
ES-oil
June 23, 2022

Rates continue to drag oil price

Oil prices slid on Wednesday. ICE Brent front month price went -2.5% down to settle at $111.74/b. And, NYMEX WTI closed at $106.19/b making a -3.2% decline. Again, it is the risk of an economic slowdown in the coming months (due to the monetary tightening in developed countries and the…
ES-economy
June 23, 2022

Euro Zone consumer confidence plunges to multi-year lows

The release of Consumer confidence data for June-22 in the Euro Zone showed that the index plunged to a new multi-year low at -23.6 (see below chart), much lower than expected by market players as households are facing soaring energy and food prices and economists warn about the heightened risk…
ES-gas
June 23, 2022

Moderate price increase overall

European gas prices were mixed yesterday: lower in the UK, higher overall on the continent as concerns on Russian supply continued to lend support. Russian flows remained stable yesterday at their weak 104 mm cm/day level. Norwegian flows were slightly lower, averaging 306 mm cm/day, compared to 308 mm cm/day…
ES-power
June 22, 2022

Second attempt for the Parliament

The European power spot prices were mixed yesterday, lifted in Germany and France by the higher fuel and carbon prices but down in Belgium and the Netherlands on forecasts of stronger solar generation. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 314.14€/MWh over the four countries, +9.02€/MWh day-on-day. The power curve prices continued…
ES-oil
June 22, 2022

Oil stable yesterday, falls this morning

Yesterday, oil continued to climb back, NYMEX WTI contract for August delivery (now the front month), that did not trade on Monday, gained +1.4% to settle at $109.52/b. And ICE Brent front month moved 0.5% up to end the session at $114.65/b. Last week price drop, caused by the decision…
ES-gas
June 22, 2022

Concerns on supply continue to support prices

European gas prices continued to increase yesterday, still supported by concerns on supply. Russian flows stabilized at their weak levels yesterday, averaging 104 mm cm/day. Norwegian flows were significantly lower, averaging 308 mm cm/day, compared to 329 mm cm/day on Monday, and are even lower this morning (287 mm cm/day)…
ES-economy
June 22, 2022

A dead cat bounce?

US equity markets bounced back on Tuesday, reversing some of the sharp losses recorded last week on the back of an historical 75 bp interest rate increase from the Fed to fight the highest inflation rate in four decades. But Asian equity markets did not follow the rebound overnight as…
ES-power
June 21, 2022

Flow of regulatory news spurred mixed moves in the energy complex

The European power spot prices continued to climb yesterday, buoyed by a rebound of clean fuel costs and forecasts of stronger demand, weaker nuclear availability and dropping wind production, although the higher solar and hydro generation expected today might have dampened slightly the bullish pressure. The day-ahead prices hence averaged…
ES-gas
June 21, 2022

Prices maintain their uptrend

European gas prices were up overall yesterday as the weakness in Russian supply (stable yesterday at 104 mm cm/day on average, with Nord Stream 1 flows stabilizing at 68 mm cm/day) continued to dominate market sentiment. On their side, Norwegian flows increased slightly, averaging 329 mm cm/day on average, compared…
ES-economy
June 21, 2022

Brief respite for financial markets ahead of a raft of economic data

Equity markets in Europe and Asia showed a brief respite for on Monday after a week of sharp losses on the back of growing recession concerns. The impact of the French legislative election results, leading to a period of political uncertainty in the second economy of the Euro zone, which…
ES-oil
June 21, 2022

Oil rebounded and volumes were low

On Monday, ICE Brent front month price went 0.9% up, closing at $114.13/b. Due to a public holiday in the US, there was no settlement on NYMEX WTI. After the high volatility seen last week, the market is back to an undecided state. Fears related to the economic outlook represents a bearish factor…
ES-power
June 20, 2022

Overall retreat of the energy complex

The European power spot prices for today reached a level close to Friday’s as the retracing gas prices, weaker demand and higher wind output expected in the upcoming hours were offset by forecasts of lower nuclear availability and solar production. The day-ahead prices hence averaged 269.29€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium…
ES-oil
June 20, 2022

Oil prices fell heavily on Friday

Oil slumped on Friday: ICE Brent front month dove by 5.6%, to settle at $113.12/b and NYMEX WTI plunged by 6.8% to reach its lowest closing price since May 12, at $109.56/b. The sell-off was not driven by a new event, but is rather the result of the degradation of the…
ES-economy
June 20, 2022

Recession fears continue to weigh on financial markets

Recession concerns amid surging inflation rates and a sharp acceleration of monetary tightening across the globe continued to weigh on financial markets at the end of last week. Overall, US stocks have suffered their heaviest weekly fall since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic last week. Nothing special in the…
ES-oil
June 17, 2022

Russia and Iran erased previous losses

Yesterday was a choppy session for oil, at the end prices went up: ICE Brent front month moved +1.1% higher to $119.81/b and WTI NYMEX for July delivery traded +2.0% higher at $117.58/b. During the session, the lowest trading level for Brent was $115.56/b (-3.3%), it reflects the concerns following…
ES-power
June 17, 2022

Surging gas prices triggered sell-off in EU ETS

The European power spot prices pursued their ascend yesterday, driven further up by the soaring gas prices despite forecasts of slightly weaker power demand. The day-ahead prices averaged 272.10€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +39.33€/MWh day-on-day. The EUAs plunged by 3.7% on Thursday as the surging gas markets…
ES-gas
June 17, 2022

Prices torn between concerns on supply and profit taking

European gas prices were mixed yesterday, torn between ongoing concerns on supply and profit taking. Yesterday, reflecting the problems on the compressors mentioned the previous days, Russian supply weakened again, averaging 106 mm cm/day (compared to 136 mm cm/day on Wednesday), with Nord Stream 1 flows down to 70 mm…
ES-economy
June 17, 2022

On second thought…

The markets, which had welcomed the Fed’s 75bp rate hike, finally revised their judgement significantly afterwards. Concerns about growth took over, leading to a sharp drop in equity markets (-4% for the Nasdaq, -3.25% for the S&P 500, -3% for the Euro Stoxx 50) and a sharp decline in long-term rates as…
ES-gas
June 16, 2022

Prices rose again as Russian supply should fall further

European gas prices maintained their bullish trend yesterday, supported by the prospect of an additional drop in Russian flows. Indeed, Gazprom said yesterday it had halted operations at one of three operational compressor units at the Portovaya compressor station due to maintenance issues. This should remove a further 33 mm…
ES-oil
June 16, 2022

Oil fell on short term outlook

Yesterday, oil prices closed in red territories: ICE Brent front month closed at $118.51/b, making a 2.2% loss while NYMEX WTI for July delivery went 3.0% down to settle at $115.31/b. The US Fed decision to hike rate by 75bp (see this news) fueled fear for economic growth and thus oil…

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