Concerns on supply continue to support prices

European gas prices continued to increase yesterday, still supported by concerns on supply. Russian flows stabilized at their weak levels yesterday, averaging 104 mm cm/day. Norwegian flows were significantly lower, averaging 308 mm cm/day, compared to 329 mm cm/day on Monday, and are even lower this morning (287 mm cm/day) due to a compressor failure at the Troll field.

The additional strong rise in coal prices (+6.68% for API2 1st nearby prices, +8.24% for Cal 2023 prices) also provided support.

Note that after the Netherlands and Denmark, Sweden in turn declared a gas market “early warning”.

At the close, NBP ICE July 2022 prices increased by 5.020 p/th (+2.50%), to 205.860 p/th, equivalent to €81.849/MWh. TTF ICE July 2022 prices were up by €4.933 (+4.09%), closing at €125.560/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by €3.864 (+4.37%), closing at €92.188/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 2.03%, to €119.236/MWh.

With a Russian supply that does not deteriorate further and a Norwegian supply expected to increase from tomorrow, TTF 1st nearby prices could continue their “normalization” process today, ie trade in the lower part of the range set by the 20-day High and the 5-day High.

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