Macro-economy news

EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil
April 22, 2025

Macro & Oil Report: The trade war waged by the United States

Macro & Oil Report: The trade war waged by the United States April, 17 2025 Macro & Oil In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier reviews the events that followed 2nd April, “Liberation Day”. Analysis, insights and forecasts. Listen here The Trade war waged by the United States: decryption, analysis,…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil
March 4, 2025

Macro & Oil Report: Is Donald Trump’s policy good for the US economy?

Macro & Oil Report: Is Donald Trump’s policy good for the US economy? March, 4 2025 Macro & Oil There is much talk about the consequences of Donald Trump’s economic policy on the United States’ trading partners, but it is the US economy that is already showing signs of weakening.…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil
February 4, 2025

Macro & Oil Report: Donald Trump’s return – a first review

Macro & Oil Report: Donald Trump’s return – a first review February, 4 2025 Macro & Oil Geopolitics, tariffs, energy, the environment, public spending, monetary policy Donald Trump has already tackled many issues We take stock in the latest EnergyScan podcast. Listen here Two Weeks In: A Look at Donald…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
January 20, 2025

Macro & Oil Report: What if the Fed raised rates in 2025?

Macro & Oil Report: What if the Fed raised rates in 2025? January, 13 2025 Macro & Oil Still unthinkable just a few weeks ago, a Fed rate hike is becoming a possibility, and could do damage well beyond the United States, says Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast.…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
January 7, 2025

Macro & Oil Report: Inflation, once again a key issue for 2025

Macro & Oil Report: Review of 2024 and outlook for 2025 January, 7 2025 Macro & Oil In the latest EneryScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains that the latest Fed meeting has brought back to the centre of the debate what the markets had been trying to ignore for months: inflation…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
December 18, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: Review of 2024 and outlook for 2025

Macro & Oil Report: Review of 2024 and outlook for 2025 December, 18 2024 Macro & Oil In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier looks back at the key economic events and trends of 2024 and what to expect in 2025. Listen here Share this news : Check our latest…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
December 10, 2024

Macro & Oil Report : Donald Trump takes center stage

Macro & Oil Report: Donald Trump takes center stage December, 2 2024 Macro & Oil Everything has revolved around Donald Trump since his election, including on financial markets, says Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast. This week, however, we need to keep an eye on the political situation in…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil
December 9, 2024

Macro & Oil Report : The benign neglect of the markets raises questions

Macro & Oil Report: Tensions in Eastern Europe push up the dollar and oil prices December, 9 2024 Macro & Oil In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains why he believes the bond markets are being benignly negligent. He also looks back at the latest OPEC meeting.  Listen here…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, podcast, Macro, Oil
November 25, 2024

Macro & Oil Report : Election of Donald Trump – the first consequences

Macro & Oil Report: Election of Donald Trump – the first consequences November, 15 2024 Macro & Oil The contrast between a flourishing US economy and the European and Chinese economies mired in crisis is reinforced by the prospect of a trade war, says Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, podcast, Macro, Oil
September 24, 2024

Macro & Oil Report : Lower interest rates for better or worse?

Macro & Oil Report: Lower interest rates for better or worse? Macro & Oil #121 Rates fall sharply in the US, but caution in the eurozone and China. Olivier Gasnier discusses the different strategies of central banks in the latest EnergyScan podcast. Listen here Share this news : Check our…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, podcast, Macro, Oil
September 17, 2024

Macro & Oil Report : Waiting for the fed

Macro & Oil Report: Waiting for the Fed Macro & Oil #120 The Fed is about to embark on its monetary easing cycle. That’s the topic addressed by Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast. Listen here Share this news : Check our latest post September 17, 2024 Macro &…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, podcast, Macro, Oil
September 10, 2024

Macro & Oil Report : Markets on a knife’s edge

Macro & Oil Report: Markets on a knife edge Macro & Oil #119 In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us that the sharp fall in equity markets and oil prices reflects major concerns about global growth and growing impatience with central banks, which are embarking on a new…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, podcast, Macro, Oil
September 3, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: Rate cuts are coming

Macro & Oil Report: Rate cuts are coming Macro & Oil #117 In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us that The Fed is preparing to cut rates in September, and the ECB is likely to follow suit. The Fed’s goal is now to avoid causing an excessive slowdown…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, podcast, Macro, Oil
June 25, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: The noose is tightening on the eurozone

Macro & Oil Report: The noose is tightening on the eurozone Macro & Oil #110 With the economic recovery barely underway but already running out of steam, a simmering political crisis and a central bank forced to wait for the Fed to signal a rate cut, the outlook for the…
EnergyScan, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, podcast, Macro, Oil
May 21, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: US economy: what we see and what we want to see

Macro & Oil Report: US economy: what we see and what we want to see Macro & Oil #105 In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us that the US economic slowdown seems to be materialising faster than disinflation, rather than the reverse, as the US stock markets seem…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
March 4, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: A deceptive trend reversal in rates

A deceptive trend reversal in rates Macro & Oil #94 In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about misleading signals. According to him, The drop in the manufacturing ISM index does not call into question the temporary nature of the US slowdown, and the too-high euro area core inflation…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
February 12, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: Markets continue to adjust to the new interest rate scenario

Markets continue to adjust to the new interest rate scenario Macro & Oil #90 Rates continue to rise as we await January’s US inflation figures tells us Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast. Another key week ahead… Listen here Share this news : Check our latest post January 17, 2024 Gas…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
February 5, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: Prospects for a rate cut in the US seriously shaken

Prospects for a rate cut in the US seriously shaken Macro & Oil #89 There are three main lessons to be learned from the past week tells us Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast: 1) the Fed’s rate cut looks increasingly doubtful; 2) the US/eurozone growth gap is widening; 3)…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
January 22, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: The comeback of “Higher for longer”?

The comeback of “Higher for longer”? Macro & Oil #86 The prospect of a rapid rate cut by central banks is receding in the US and Europe, but with radically different effects on the markets, reflecting very contrasting economic situations tells us Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast.  Listen…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
January 15, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: Markets more than ever awaiting Fed rate cuts

Markets more than ever awaiting Fed rate cuts Macro & Oil #84 The bias with which the markets reacted to the various US price statistics says a lot about their dependence on rate cuts, says Olivier Gasnier in the latest EnergyScan podcast.  Listen here Share this news : Check our…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
January 8, 2024

Macro & Oil Report: Markets full of doubts

Markets full of doubts Macro & Oil #83 The euphoria of late 2023 has given way to doubts: what if the Fed does not cut rates as much as hoped in 2024? In the latest EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier looks back on a rather gloomy start to the year on the markets.…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
November 27, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: Hesitation

Hesitation Macro & Oil #78 In the latest EnergyScan podcast on Macro & Oil, Olivier Gasnier explains that the markets are optimistic about a possible US soft landing, while business sentiment seems to stabilise in Europe. But the indicators are mixed and the Chinese property crisis is back in the spotlight.…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
November 21, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: The perfect scenario?

The perfect scenario? Macro & Oil Podcast #76 In this week’s Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier explains that the ideal scenario of disinflation and soft landing seems to be taking shape, but that the risks of things not going according to plan have not disappeared.  Listen…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
May 9, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: Fed & ECB – similar decisions, different outlook

Macro & Oil Podcast #42 In this week’s Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier looks back at the rate hike announced by the Fed and ECB last week. Behind the identical decisions (25bp rate hikes), we can see a rather different discourse reflecting uncertainty about the…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
April 25, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: “But” is the key word

Macro & Oil Podcast #41 There were few marked variations in the markets last week, with the notable exception of the decline in oil prices, which is mainly explained by a rise in fears of recession. However, Olivier Gasnier tells us that the situation is far from clear, as the…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
April 17, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: Already less growth but still too much inflation

Macro & Oil Podcast #39 Despite the recovery in China, the IMF is expressing fears about global growth and the Fed is raising the prospect of a “mild recession”. But in this week’s Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us that central banks are probably…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
April 11, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: Increasing signs the US economy is sliding into recession

Macro & Oil Podcast #37 In this week’s Macro & Oil report of the EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier talks about the accumulation of economic indicators suggesting that the US economy is sliding into recession. Does this mean that central bank rate hikes are over? For the Fed, that moment is…
EnergyScan, podcast, ENGIE, ENGIE Gems, Macro, Oil, Energy
March 27, 2023

Macro & Oil Report: Between inflation and banking crisis

Macro & Oil Podcast #33 In this week’s Macro & Oil EnergyScan podcast, Olivier Gasnier tells us about the two opposite trends sweeping the Global Economy at the moment : loss of confidence due to the banking crisis and fears of recession? Or economies doing well and therefore still enough…
ES-economy
July 4, 2022

Less growth in the US, more inflation in Europe and still the Covid in China

Spectacular decline in bond yields: the US 10-year ended the week at 2.88%. It was at 3.47% in mid-June. The German Bund fell from 1.76% to 1.22% in 10 days. The markets are totally focused on the effects of monetary policy tightening and signs of economic slowdown. The dollar continues to…
ES-economy
July 1, 2022

Equity markets down 20-30% in H1

For the first time since the beginning of the year, US consumer spending contracted in real terms (deflated for inflation) in May, amplifying recession fears and the downward correction in equity markets. Overall, the S&P 500 fell by 20.8% in the first half of the year, the Nasdaq by 30% and in Europe, the…
ES-economy
June 30, 2022

All against inflation!

The statements of the central bankers meeting in Sintra, from the ECB or the Fed, are unambiguous: the priority is the fight against inflation. They are generally confident that a recession should be avoided, but warn that signs of economic slowdown do not distract them from their main short-term objective. Against…
ES-economy
June 29, 2022

There is renewed concern

The US equity markets fell again yesterday, this time more sharply (-2% for the S&P 500 and -3% for the Nasdaq). The sharp decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is not unrelated to this: it confirms the signs of a downturn in the US labour market already highlighted by the…
ES-economy
June 28, 2022

Without conviction

US equity markets fell back yesterday as interest rates rose to above 3.2% for the US 10 year. Market participants appear unconvinced as we approach the end of the month, with recession fears pitted against inflation fears to determine what central bank policy will be. US durable goods orders rose again…
ES-economy
June 27, 2022

Downward revisions in expectations of monetary tightening

The rebound in risky assets that began on Thursday after the publication of sharply lower PMIs was amplified on Friday after the revised figures from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey showed a drop in inflation expectations. The S&P 500 was up 3.1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 2.8%. The EUR/USD exchange…
ES-economy
June 24, 2022

Germany triggers the second stage of its national gas emergency plan

Risks of energy shortages came back to the fore on Thursday after Germany triggered the second step of its emergency gas plan with the German economy minister Robert Habeck warning of a potential “Lehman Brother effect” in the energy sector in case of a full cut in Russian gas supply.…
ES-economy
June 23, 2022

Euro Zone consumer confidence plunges to multi-year lows

The release of Consumer confidence data for June-22 in the Euro Zone showed that the index plunged to a new multi-year low at -23.6 (see below chart), much lower than expected by market players as households are facing soaring energy and food prices and economists warn about the heightened risk…
ES-economy
June 22, 2022

A dead cat bounce?

US equity markets bounced back on Tuesday, reversing some of the sharp losses recorded last week on the back of an historical 75 bp interest rate increase from the Fed to fight the highest inflation rate in four decades. But Asian equity markets did not follow the rebound overnight as…
ES-economy
June 21, 2022

Brief respite for financial markets ahead of a raft of economic data

Equity markets in Europe and Asia showed a brief respite for on Monday after a week of sharp losses on the back of growing recession concerns. The impact of the French legislative election results, leading to a period of political uncertainty in the second economy of the Euro zone, which…
ES-economy
June 20, 2022

Recession fears continue to weigh on financial markets

Recession concerns amid surging inflation rates and a sharp acceleration of monetary tightening across the globe continued to weigh on financial markets at the end of last week. Overall, US stocks have suffered their heaviest weekly fall since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic last week. Nothing special in the…
ES-economy
June 17, 2022

On second thought…

The markets, which had welcomed the Fed’s 75bp rate hike, finally revised their judgement significantly afterwards. Concerns about growth took over, leading to a sharp drop in equity markets (-4% for the Nasdaq, -3.25% for the S&P 500, -3% for the Euro Stoxx 50) and a sharp decline in long-term rates as…
ES-economy
June 16, 2022

Positive market reaction to Fed and ECB meetings

The Fed predictably raised its key rate by 75bp and warned that it could raise it again on a scale not seen since 1994 in July, but that it believed such action should be exceptional. Its growth and inflation forecasts were revised downwards and upwards respectively, but not excessively so,…
ES-economy
May 24, 2022

Strong rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate

It seems that as soon as Mrs Lagarde speaks, the euro rises. This was the case yesterday and it is happening again this morning after an interview with Bloomberg. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose from 1.0550 to over 1.07. What did she say? That the ECB would probably raise its key…
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