Record wind generation weighs on spot prices, curve up on rising gas prices

Spot and curve power prices took opposite paths on Friday, with mild and extremely windy weather weighing on short-term maturities whereas lingering geopolitical concerns over Russian gas supply to Europe continued to support longer-dated maturities. In the UK, wind power generation hit an all-time high this weekend, dragging spot prices for Saturday delivery to a three-week low. German spot prices even plunged to €55/MWh on average for delivery on Sunday.

EUA prices could continue to send neutral signals to power prices on the curve today as Dec-22 prices failed to breach technical resistances last week and point towards a stable to bearish evolution in the short term. Overall, weaker gas prices could trigger some losses on EU power calendar maturities. At the spot level, France nuclear availability remains particularly weak today around 48 GW, but prospects of very high wind power generation tomorrow (with an intraday peak currently expected at 47 GW in Germany) are likely to weigh as well on spot prices.