EnergyScan

Prices were mixed again yesterday

European gas prices were mixed again yesterday: slightly down on the spot, slightly up on the curve. Amid ongoing concerns on relatively low Russian supply, the moderation in Asia JKM prices (-5.71%, to €109.437/MWh, on the spot; +0.31%, to €112.743/MWh, for the January 2022 contract) helped limit the upward pressure. On the spot pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were almost stable yesterday, at 344 mm cm/day on average, compared to 343 mm cm/day on Wednesday. The same for Russian supply which amounted 288 mm cm/day on average, compared to 289 mm cm/day on Wednesday. 

At the close, NBP ICE December 2021 prices increased by 0.790 p/th day-on-day (+0.33%), to 239.800 p/th. TTF ICE December 2021 prices were up by 16 euro cents (+0.17%) at the close, to €95.167/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by €1.11 (+2.02%), closing at €55.955/MWh, with the spread against the coal parity price (€35.876/MWh, +2.03%) widening.

Yesterday, TTF ICE December 2021 prices wiped out in the afternoon their initial losses as some bulls have bought the dip, having probably in sight the day-ahead 5-day High target. They could continue to play this strategy (buy today in order to sell back at the 5-day High of the next trading day)… as long as the Asia JKM price offers an upside potential. This potential stills exists, but the moderation in Asia JKM prices (if confirmed) could end it. As a consequence, we believe that risks (on the upside or the downside) are now equally distributed.

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