EnergyScan

Prices up after Russian flows through the second entry point in Ukraine dropped

Supported by rising concerns on Russian supply, European gas prices were up overall yesterday, in a context of persistent decorrelation between day-ahead and month-ahead prices (see the Gas & Coal Weekly Report published yesterday). Indeed, Russian flows through Ukraine at the Velke Kapusany entry point dropped again yesterday (averaging 58 mm cm/day, compared to 67 mm cm/day on Wednesday) as the Sudzha entry point was in turn impacted by lower transit volumes. This drove total Russian flows to 226 mm cm/day on average, compared to 236 mm cm/day on Wednesday. On their side, Norwegian flows weakened to 310 mm cm/day on average yesterday, compared to 316 mm cm/day on Wednesday. 

The rise in coal prices (+1.54% for API2 1st nearby prices, +1.65% for Cal 2023 prices) provided additional upward pressure. 

At the close, NBP ICE June 2022 prices increased by 35.810 p/th (+25.63%), to 175.550 p/th, equivalent to €70.767/MWh. TTF ICE June 2022 prices were up by €12.69 (+13.50%), closing at €106.701/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by €4.35 (+5.50%), closing at €83.554/MWh. 

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 7.93%, to €76.017/MWh; June 2022 prices increased by 1.94%, to €77.356/MWh.

Finally, TTF ICE June 2022 prices managed to reach the 5-day High target yesterday. But they closed below this level, probably under the pressure of profit taking by financial participants. The rise in coal prices pulled the maximum coal switching level to  €102.15/MWh yesterday (up from  €100.41/MWh on Wednesday), a level that can now serve as a support. Russian flows through Ukraine are nominated slightly lower this morning, at 55 mm cm/day. If they remain around this level, the market could consider that the situation is manageable and avoid overbidding. Prices could therefore remain below our first level of resistance (€106.47/MWh). Otherwise, a rise to the 5-day High (€112.75/MWh) could not be avoid.

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