Prices weakened as the impact of the sharp drop in Nord Stream 1 flows started to fade

European gas prices dropped on Friday as the impact of the sharp drop in Nord Stream 1 flows started to fade. Moreover, as we explained in our Gas & Coal Weekly Report published on Friday, European gas prices could still escape a return to their March highs under certain conditions.

Russian supply was slightly down on Friday, averaging 104 mm cm/day (compared to 106 mm cm/day on Thursday), with Nord Stream 1 flows weakening to 68 mm cm/day, compared to 70 mm cm/day on Thursday. By contrast, Norwegian flows increased significantly, averaging 326 mm cm/day on average, compared to 312 mm cm/day on Thursday. 

At the close, NBP ICE July 2022 prices dropped by 31.820 p/th (-13.62%), to 201.800 p/th, equivalent to €80.178/MWh. TTF ICE July 2022 prices were down by €6.626 (-5.33%), closing at €117.738/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices dropped by €5.156 (-5.65%), closing at €86.082/MWh. 

In Asia, JKM spot prices dropped by 1.79%, to €122.823/MWh ; August 2022 prices dropped by 2.01%, to €110.364/MWh.

TTF 1st nearby prices closed on Friday almost at the level of the 5-day High as some financial participants have probably decided to take their profits. Prices are up this morning, along the 5-day High. In the very short term, the dynamic could remain the same: the trend is bullish, but technical levels could avoid a price spike.