No OPEC surprises, stable oil prices

The price of Brent 1st nearby is stable above $89/b. As expected, OPEC confirmed that the OPEC+ production quota would be increased by 400kb/d in March and as expected, the market remained wary of the difficulties experienced by many member states in meeting existing quotas. Moreover, each day brings its own news to maintain the geopolitical risk. Yesterday,…

Eurozone inflation still rising ahead of ECB meeting

Eurozone inflation finally reached a new high in January (5.1%), driven by energy and food prices. Inflation accelerated to 5.3% in Italy. In many countries, the increase in energy prices on 1 January had the same effect and a residual effect will remain in February. If the news did not have a strong impact (the market…

Rising pipeline flows from Russia drag EU gas prices further down

A 40 mm cm/day increase in Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine and Nordstream 1 pushed European gas prices further down on Tuesday, eroding again the risk premium built last week. Mild and windy weather continued to weigh on gas demand : UK CCGTs consumed only 33 mm cm of gas yesterday, compared to 59…

What can OPEC do?

Brent 1st-nearby price is rather stable, just below $90/b. The market is not expecting much from the OPEC+ meeting today. A further production increase of 400kb/d is expected to be announced for next month, but OPEC and Russia have not demonstrated their ability to meet this roadmap in recent months and fears of sanctions affecting Russian exports…

The Fed calms things down

Equity markets continue to rally; the S&P 500 has erased half of its losses. US long rates stabilised as Fed members tried to put out the fire sparked by Jerome Powell’s statements last week: none of them are now suggesting that the Fed funds rate hike could be as high as 50bp in March and everyone…

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