3 standard deviations away

Brent prompt future contract significantly recovered yesterday, to reach 64.7 $/b. Crude prices were boosted by rumours that OPEC members could roll over the current production cut, which would overly tighten the market, according to our balances. At the same time, the EIA reported a shocking 21 mb crude inventory build, 3 standard deviations away from…

New spike in risk aversion fuelled by higher bond yields

Risk aversion returned on financial markets yesterday, as a key measure of inflation expectations topped 2.5% in the US, which drove bond yields higher. Yet, US economic reports were mixed, but prospects of the vote of the stimulus package by the Senate in the coming days fuel intense debates about its potential risks. In Europe,…

European gas prices mixed yesterday

With unchanged fundamentals (temperatures are expected to drop gradually, falling briefly below normal during the weekend), European spot gas prices were mixed yesterday. The trend was more clearly bearish for curve prices, which ignored the rise in parity prices with coal for power generation (following higher EUA and coal prices). On the pipeline supply side,…

Growing divergence between crude and oil products markets

Brent prompt future contract remained pressured, at 63 $/b, as the OPEC meeting cycle started with the JMMC’s technical meeting yesterday. At the same time, the API survey showed large draws in product stocks and builds in crude stocks, in line with our forward crude balances. US refining runs surprised to the downside. On the…

EUAs rebounded on technicals and bullish oil and equities

The power spot prices slightly fade in northwestern Europe yesterday on the back of forecasts of higher wind output, nuclear availability and temperatures. Prices reached 51.77€/MWh on average in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -1.54€/MWh day-on-day. The French power consumption edged up by 0.11GW to reach 59.52GW on average on Tuesday. The nuclear production…

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