Physical markets increasingly reflecting summer strength

ICE Brent prices approached 75 $/b yesterday after the EIA weekly data release showed further scarcity in the US crude market. Later in the day, crude prices pulled back by the more hawkish than expected Fed meeting which anticipated 2 rate hikes in 2023. Physical markets are increasingly reflecting a tightening balance, as Asian and…

Curve prices down again

European spot gas prices were mixed yesterday: down in the UK on expectations of higher Norwegian supply from today, up on the continent as significantly above-normal temperatures continued to pull air conditioning demand higher. On the pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were lower yesterday, at 258 mm cm/day on average, compared to 264 mm cm/day…

Fed’s hawkish move takes markets by surprise

The Fed did almost exactly what was expected, but the small surprise made a big difference. Once again, this surprise came from the “Dots”, i.e. the individual Fed members’ rate forecasts. A shift from 2024 to 2023 for the 1st rate hike was expected. But not two rate hikes as soon as 2023. Bond yields…

EUAs fell further on dropping fuels and supply concerns

The European power spot prices continued to rise yesterday amid forecast of warming temperatures strengthening the demand for cooling and weak renewable production. Prices climbed by 4.29€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands to reach 86.83€/MWh on average. The EUA dropped by 2.8% on Tuesday amid pressure from the falling gas and coal prices…

Further evidence of significant crude draws

ICE Brent prompt contract continued to climb, at 74.2 $/b, as the API survey reported significant draws in US crude commercial stocks, while products inventories built at a more moderate pace. Cushing stocks are seen down by 1.5 mb, indicating further tightness for the WTI market, ahead of the summer. Japanese crude commercial stocks also…

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