European prices down on ongoing strong LNG supply and rebound in Norwegian flows

European gas prices weakened yesterday, pressured by the additional drop in Asia JKM prices (-4.54% on the spot, to €64.323/MWh; -7.96% for the March 2022 contract, to €63.604/MWh), which indicates LNG supply to Europe will remain very high. The rebound in Norwegian supply (to 321 mm cm/day yesterday, compared to 264 mm cm/day on Tuesday, as some of the unplanned outages have been fixed) provided additional downward pressure. On their side, Russian flows were stable at 184 mm cm/day on average.

At the close, NBP ICE February 2022 prices dropped by 6.790 p/th day-on-day (-3.62%), to 180.730 p/th. TTF ICE February 2022 prices were down by €2.73 (-3.49%), closing at €75.602/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by 81 euro cents (-1.86%), closing at €42.533/MWh.

Once again, only the 5-day Low managed to stop the downward pressure on TTF ICE February 2022 prices yesterday. Prices are falling again this morning, below today’s 5-day Low… but above tomorrow’s. This is indicative of a market where the trend is well marked: financial bears are now playing the trend and not just intraday movements (ie they accept to keep their sell position at least until the next day), but taking care not to sell at levels that are too low. Therefore, at current price levels, further downside potential seems limited for today.