EnergyScan

No agreement in Europe on stopping Russian oil imports immediately

This was to be expected. Some European countries are too dependent on oil from Russia to declare an embargo overnight. This is particularly true of Austria and several Eastern European countries, but also of Germany, which gets 1/3 of its oil from Russia. On this point, Joe Biden’s visit will not have moved the lines, even if the objective of reducing and then stopping imports from Russia is clearly set. Germany announced that it would halve its imports from Russia by June for example. 

This explains the fall in crude oil prices. Brent 1st-nearby, which had approached $124/b yesterday morning, is now trading below $117/b. Volatility promises to remain very high in any case, as there are so many parameters that can make prices vary on both the supply and demand sides. Kazakhstan also announced that one of the 3 docking points in the Black Sea to load oil from the CPC pipeline would reopen today. The other 2 should follow within 3 weeks. Remember that the transit is about 1.5mb/d in normal times. 

The tension on diesel in Europe is not diminishing: the price differential between ICE gasoil and Brent has almost tripled to over $30/b since the beginning of the war. As with crude oil, Russian gasoil is offered at a very high discount but is not finding takers.

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