Chinese risk largely unpriced

Brent futures prices continue to weaken at the prompt, as 1st nearby prices reached 55.5 $/b, about 1% lower compared to yesterday. The first coronavirus cases in Shanghai were detected, outside of the regions under lockdown. This cast doubt on the health situation in China, especially ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations, usually preceded by at least 200 million people travelling across China. Refining runs in December edged higher vat 4.57 mb/d, a 0.9% y/y expansion. Future Indian crude buying might be seen through spot markets. The Biden administration imposed a 60-day freeze for new drilling permits on US federal lands.

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