Brent crude oil hit $99.5 a barrel yesterday before settling back down to $97/b. As we explain in the Daily Eco, the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia remain measured for the time being and, above all, there seems to be no intention of restricting Russian oil exports in an already hyper-tensioned market. However, the price of Russia’s main crude benchmark (Ural) has plunged $6.3/b below Dated Brent, the widest spread in 11 years.
The OPEC producing countries, Nigeria and Iraq in particular, do not wish to change the pace of production increases decided last July (+400k/d each month) and, moreover, they should already be able to achieve this objective. The solutions to increase oil supply in the short term are the provision of strategic reserves on the one hand, with coordinated action being prepared in this sense in the event of a surge in crude prices, and the return of Iranian oil to the market on the other. A decision is expected this week on the Iranian nuclear issue, as an agreement is a prerequisite for a resumption of Iranian exports. You can refer to the note we published yesterday on this subject.
Please note that there will be no report on US stocks today. The publication is postponed to tomorrow, as Monday was a holiday in the US.
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