European gas prices continued to rally on Thursday, supported by strong demand and prospects of a limited rise in Russian gas imports this year. Strong oil, EUA, coal and JKM prices were also supportive.
Gazprom indicated at its investor’s day yesterday (slides here) that it was targeting exports to Europe in the 175-183 Bcm range in 2021 in its annual budget. 2020 exports to Europe reached 175 Bcm, which could lead to a maximum 4.5% yoy increase in this scenario. Russian gas exports to Europe are so far flat year on year in 2021 looking at flows coming at key entry points in Western Europe (see European gas balance here).
On the demand side, prospects of the continuation of below-average temperatures could keep consumption at a high level: NW Europe gas (UK, FR, NL, DE, BE) demand jumped by 48% yoy and by 21% compared to 2019 levels so far in April.
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