Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed yesterday as the drop in Russian supply came to remind that the fundamental situation remains fragile. Indeed, Russian flows dropped to 252 mm cm/day on average yesterday, compared to 273 mm cm/day on Monday, mainly because of the halt in Yamal flows through Poland. By contrast, Norwegian flows were up, averaging 333 mm cm/day, compared to 329 mm cm/day on Monday.

At the close, NBP ICE April 2022 prices increased by 3.480 p/th day-on-day (+1.28%), to 274.400 p/th. TTF ICE April 2022 prices were up by 92 euro cents (+0.80%), closing at €115.439/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by 19 euro cents (-0.29%), closing at €65.559/MWh. 

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 12.80%, to €105.985/MWh; April 2022 prices increased by 0.41%, to €116.673/MWh.

TTF ICE April 2022 prices are almost back to “normal”, with only the 20-day High still above the 1-Year High. With Russian flows down again this morning, the downside potential for prices may be limited. In particular, the 5-day Low (€111.03/MWh for today) could lend strong support. On the upside, the 5-day High (€146.35/MWh for today) could be difficult to reach. But the 5-day average (around €121/MWh) and the level of the most expensive gasoil substitution possibilities (around €118/MWh) offer intermediate targets.