IEA, OPEC alert on variant surge
Brent prompt futures retreated to 60.7 $/b after the publication of the two monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA, showing a slower recovery than…
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European gas prices weakened on Friday, maintaining their stable trend, and seemingly insensitive to the strong drop in pipeline supply. Indeed, Norwegian flows dropped significantly, averaging 269 mm cm/day, compared to 306 mm cm/day on Thursday, still impacted by a series of planned and unplanned maintenance. Russian flows were almost stable, at 209 mm cm/day, compared to 208 mm cm/day on Thursday.
At the close, NBP ICE May 2022 prices dropped by 17.480 p/th day-on-day (-9.26%), to 171.390 p/th. TTF ICE May 2022 prices were down by €5.19 (-5.18%), closing at €94.875/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by €2.80 (-3.31%), closing at €81.773/MWh.
In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 3.17%, to €82.366/MWh; June 2022 prices increased by 1.20%, to €80.594/MWh.
The 20-day average opposed once again a strong resistance to TTF ICE May 2022 prices on Friday, which finally closed around the 5-day average. They are rebounding this morning to 100/MWh but, as Norwegian flows are recovering (to 305 mm cm/day this morning), the upside potential seems limited. Moreover, the maximum coal switching level is currently around €100/MWh, which means the current price level is enough to limit gas consumption from power generation. Therefore, in the absence of a major fundamental element, prices should continue to trade between the 5-day average and the 20-day average.