Growing concern
The markets are on tenterhooks, watching for the slightest signal that tensions with Russia are easing or that an invasion of Ukraine is imminent. Equity markets fell…
Join EnergyScan
Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription
Ask for a free trial here
European gas prices weakened on Friday, maintaining their stable trend, and seemingly insensitive to the strong drop in pipeline supply. Indeed, Norwegian flows dropped significantly, averaging 269 mm cm/day, compared to 306 mm cm/day on Thursday, still impacted by a series of planned and unplanned maintenance. Russian flows were almost stable, at 209 mm cm/day, compared to 208 mm cm/day on Thursday.
At the close, NBP ICE May 2022 prices dropped by 17.480 p/th day-on-day (-9.26%), to 171.390 p/th. TTF ICE May 2022 prices were down by €5.19 (-5.18%), closing at €94.875/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by €2.80 (-3.31%), closing at €81.773/MWh.
In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 3.17%, to €82.366/MWh; June 2022 prices increased by 1.20%, to €80.594/MWh.
The 20-day average opposed once again a strong resistance to TTF ICE May 2022 prices on Friday, which finally closed around the 5-day average. They are rebounding this morning to 100/MWh but, as Norwegian flows are recovering (to 305 mm cm/day this morning), the upside potential seems limited. Moreover, the maximum coal switching level is currently around €100/MWh, which means the current price level is enough to limit gas consumption from power generation. Therefore, in the absence of a major fundamental element, prices should continue to trade between the 5-day average and the 20-day average.