Strong price rebound

European gas prices rebounded strongly yesterday, supported by cold weather, ongoing concerns on Russian supply and technical buying. The rise in Asia JKM prices (+3.01% on the spot, to €109.470/MWh; +4.14% for January 2022 prices, to €109.548/MWh) helped accompany the bullish momentum. On the pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were almost stable yesterday, at 349 mm cm/day on average, compared to 350 mm cm/day on Friday. The same for Russian supply, which averaged 285 mm cm/day, compared to 284 mm cm/day on Friday.

At the close, NBP ICE December 2021 prices increased by 13.960 p/th day-on-day (+6.29%), to 236.040 p/th. TTF ICE December 2021 prices were up by €5.37 (+6.12%) at the close, to €93.146/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by €2.18 (+4.07%), closing at €55.733/MWh, with the spread against the coal parity price (€36.266/MWh, -3.33%) widening.

EnergyScan gas  news

Yesterday, the R1 level opposed a resistance to TTF ICE December 2021 prices and they finally closed (and expired) below this level. But prices for the new 1st nearby (the January 2022 contract) are breaking this resistance this morning, which seems normal: in terms of fundamentals, January should be tighter than December, and Asia JKJM prices also offer upside. But, to avoid overbuying, the rise should stop at the 5-day High (or before).

Share this news :

You might also read :

November 18, 2021

A further rate cut is expected in Turkey

It is almost certain that the Turkish Central Bank will announce a 3rd consecutive and significant rate cut today (-100 to -150bp). Since September, the key rate…
April 23, 2021

Light vs heavy

ICE Brent prompt contract hiked to 65.7 $/b, likely due to the sustained backwardation at the prompt. Physical differentials in West Africa continued to weaken,…
February 18, 2021

Prices weakened in most European markets

Prices weakened yesterday in most European gas markets, still pressured by above-normal temperatures whose impact exceeded that of supply volatility. Moreover, the drop in EUA…
Join EnergyScan

Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription

Ask for a free trial here

Don’t have an account yet?