EnergyScan

Slight price drop on the curve

European spot gas prices rebounded yesterday from the lows recorded over the Easter weekend. Curve prices closed slightly lower, but well above their lows of last Thursday. On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows weakened slightly yesterday, averaging 205 mm cm/day, compared to 207 mm cm/day on Monday. Norwegian flows increased very slightly to 346 mm cm/day on average, compared to 344 mm cm/day on Monday.

At the close on Thursday, NBP ICE May 2022 prices dropped by 3.920 p/th day-on-day (-2.21%), to 173.330 p/th. TTF ICE May 2022 prices were down by €1.85 (-1.94%), closing at €93.768/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by 44 euro cents (-0.56%), closing at €78.087/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices dropped by 3.29%, to €77.819/MWh; June 2022 prices dropped by 1.04%, to €79.467/MWh.

The moderation in coal prices (+0.17% for API2 1st nearby prices yesterday, +1.28% for Cal 2023 prices) maintained the maximum coal switching level almost stable, around €99/MWh. This moderation also suggests that, faced with the (at least seasonal) drop in power consumption, Asian utilities are not rushing into spot purchases for coal and also for gas as the trend in JKM prices suggests. Therefore, TTF ICE May 2022 prices could keep their slightly bearish bias, but within a wide trading range. Indeed, any price level between the 5-day Low (€85.52/MWh for today) and the 5-day High (€113.31/MWh) can be reached.

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