EnergyScan

Prices weakened as the bullish impact of the demand for payment in rubles faded

European gas prices weakened on Friday as the bullish impact of Moscow’s decision to demand payment for its gas in rubles faded. On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows were slightly down on Friday, averaging 262 mm cm/day, compared to 269 mm cm/day on Thursday. Norwegian flows increased to 328 mm cm/day on average, compared to 325 mm cm/day on Thursday.

At the close, NBP ICE May 2022 prices dropped by 42.000 p/th day-on-day (-14.03%), to 257.320 p/th. TTF ICE May 2022 prices were down by €13.76 (-10.93%), closing at €112.150/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by €3.89  (-5.40%), closing at €68.189/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 2.77%, to €112.572/MWh; May 2022 prices dropped by 2.00%, to €107.091/MWh.

Profit taking has also contributed to pull TTF ICE May 2022 prices down on Friday, and they finally closed around the 5-day average. They are rebounding slightly this morning. Given the level of Asia JKM prices, a drop towards the 5-day Low will be difficult to achieve. Prices are more likely to target the 5-day High. Overall, we can notice once again that they are in an equilibrium zone almost in the middle of the range set by the maximum coal switching level (currently around €84/MWh) and the maximum gasoil switching level (currently around €138/MWh).

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