Crude prices remained supported to 71.8 $/b for ICE Brent prompt futures. As the EIA weekly release showed a seasonally average week, with stock draws in crude and products of about 5 mb (see report). Another drop in gasoline stocks, combined with emerging hurricane threats and some unplanned outages in Gulf Coast refiners, triggered an impressive rally in RBOB cracks. Given the level of gasoline imports required to supply the US (1 mb/d last week), RBOB prices continue to be elevated, to open the transatlantic arb. RBOB-WTI cracks now reached 21 $/b at the prompt, for October delivery, a usually weaker month for cracks. We believe the US crack will remain sustained throughout the end of the year, amid falling inventories in Europe and the US. Rising European runs between now and the end of the year will not fully balance the Atlantic basin, as European refineries gasoline yields are limited and naphtha demand remains strong throughout the year.
Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription
Ask for a free trial here
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.