Prices weakened after an initial rally

European gas prices weakened overall yesterday at the close. They increased during most of the session, supported by new worries on Russian supply, before falling at the end, probably because of profit taking. 

On the pipeline supply side, Russian supply dropped yesterday, averaging 288 mm cm/day (compared to 313 mm cm/day on Tuesday), as both flows through Poland and Ukraine were down. Norwegian flows were also lower, averaging 314 mm cm/day (compared to 322 mm cm/day on Tuesday). 

At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices increased very slightly by 0.040 p/th day-on-day (+0.03%), to 127.750 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were down by 11 euro cents (-0.21%) at the close, to €50.232/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by 16 euro cents (-0.48%), closing at €33.354/MWh, slightly above the coal parity price (€33.289/MWh).

Profit taking by financial participants could continue to exert downward pressure on European gas prices today. However, ongoing tight fundamentals and technical supports (€49.657/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €33.243/MWh on TTF Cal 2022) could contribute to limit losses.

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