Prices up on lower Russian flows

European gas spot and near curve prices were up overall yesterday, supported by lower Russian supply and the rise in Asia JKM prices (+11.52% on the spot, to €93.387/MWh, +0.64% for the November 2021 contract, to €85.735/MWh). The rise in year-ahead prices was more moderate as they were pressured by the drop in parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were down).

On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows dropped significantly yesterday, averaging 280 mm cm/day, compared to 315 mm cm/day on Monday, due to the strong drop in Mallnow flows. Norwegian flows were up, to 342 mm cm/day on average, compared to 336 mm cm/day on Friday.

At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices increased by 5.000 p/th day-on-day (+2.63%), to 195.380 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were up by €2.06 (+2.69%) at the close, to €78.565/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 47 euro cents (+0.98%), closing at €48.846/MWh, widening the spread against the coal parity price (€38.857/MWh, -2.53%).

Flows at Mallnow are nominated slightly up this morning, but still significantly below their Monday’s level. This could continue to lend support to European gas prices today. However, technical resistances (€80.589/MWh on TTF ICE October 2021 and €49.520/MWh on TTF ICE Cal 2022) could contribute to limit gains.