European gas prices were up overall yesterday, mainly supported by the strong rise in coal prices (+8.94% for API2 1st nearby prices; +5.45% for Cal 2023 prices). Reflecting an urgency to secure supplies amid increasing blackouts, India has asked yesterday state and private sector utilities to ensure delivery of 19 million tonnes of coal from overseas by end-June, according to a power ministry letter.
However, comfortable pipeline supply helped limit the upside pressure on gas prices. Indeed, Norwegian flows were up yesterday, to 327 mm cm/day on average, compared to 317 mm cm/day on Monday. On their side, Russian flows were stable, averaging 260 mm cm/day.
At the close, NBP ICE June 2022 prices dropped by 7.510 p/th compared to Friday (-4.59%), to 156.170 p/th. TTF ICE June 2022 prices were up by €2.38 (+2.45%), closing at €99.426/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were up by €3.37 (+4.54%), closing at €77.590/MWh.
In Asia, JKM 2022 prices dropped by 0.15%, to €76.222/MWh.
The strong rise in coal prices pulled the maximum coal switching level to 93.64/MWh yesterday (up from 86.78/MWh on Monday), offering upside potential to TTF ICE June 2022 prices. However, the combined resistance of the 5-day average and the 20-day average blocked the rise. In the absence of new strong fundamental element, the 5-day average (99.51/MWh for today) and the 20-day average (100.55/MWh) could continue to limit the rise. However, a rise towards the 5-day High (114.85/MWh) cannot be totally excluded.
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