Prices slightly down on profit taking

European gas prices weakened slightly on Friday, torn between the impacts of ongoing tight fundamentals and profit taking after the previous sessions’ strong gains. Indeed, Russian supply remained weak on Friday, averaging 288 mm cm/day (compared to 287 mm cm/day on Thursday), as both flows through Poland and Ukraine remained below their levels of end August. Norwegian flows were down, averaging 287 mm cm/day (compared to 292 mm cm/day on Thursday), due to planned maintenance works. Asia JKM prices were slightly down (-0.08% for the October 2021 contract, to €53.012/MWh), but parity prices with coal for power generation were slightly up.

At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices dropped by 1.550 p/th day-on-day (-1.17%), to 130.450 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were down by 41 euro cents (-0.79%) at the close, to €51.505/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by 9 euro cents (-0.25%), closing at €34.208/MWh, slightly above the coal parity price (€33.955/MWh).

Tight fundamentals could continue to lend support to European gas prices today. However, profit taking by financial participants and technical resistances (€52.601/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €34.752/MWh on TTF Cal 2022) could contribute to limit gains.