European gas prices weakened overall on Friday, pressured by forecasts of higher LNG supply in Europe in the coming days and profit taking. The drop in Asia JKM prices (-2.96%, to €107.606/MWh, on the spot; -10.04%, to €100.717/MWh, for the December 2021 contract) and in parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were down) also exerted downward pressure.
On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows were stable on Friday, averaging 260 mm cm/day. Norwegian supply was very slightly down, to 346 mm cm/day on average, compared to 347 mm cm/day on Thursday.
At the close, NBP ICE November 2021 prices dropped by 23.250 p/th day-on-day (-9.03%), to 234.360 p/th. TTF ICE November 2021 prices were down by €8.52 (-8.34%) at the close, to €93.648/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by €1.81 (-3.14%), closing at €55.820/MWh, and the spread against the coal parity price (€39.580/MWh, -2.49%) narrowed slightly.
Today, the market will closely follow the monthly auctions of transportation capacity to get an indication of Russian supply for the next months. TTF ICE November 2021 prices are down again this morning, but the 5-day Low is lending them support. Volatility could be high today, with a trading range that could be between the 20-day Low and the 20-day High depending on the results of the auctions.
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