EnergyScan

Prices dropped again yesterday, but are rebounding this morning

European gas prices weakened again yesterday, still under pressure from the (slight) improvement in storage levels and weaker Asia JKM prices (-6.75% on the spot, to €79.920/MWh; -1.40% for the February 2022 contract, to €98.831/MWh; -8.71% for the March 2022 contract, to €76.897/MWh). On the pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were stable yesterday, at 341 mm cm/day on average. Russian supply weakened to 183 mm cm/day on average, compared to 188 mm cm/day on Monday.

At the close, NBP ICE February 2022 prices dropped by 15.650 p/th day-on-day (-7.60%), to 190.230 p/th. TTF ICE February 2022 prices were down by €5.87 (-6.94%), closing at €78.736/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by €1.75 (-3.71%), closing at €45.466/MWh.

After trading most of the session above the 5-day Low, TTF ICE February 2022 prices finally dropped below this level at the close. They are rebounding this morning, probably supported by the short participants who are taking their profits. But, given the downtrend in Asia JKM prices, the rebound could be limited. Note that the Indonesian government will conduct a review of the coal export ban today and has said any resumption would be gradual, so it can assess how restarting exports might affect supplies to the domestic market.

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