Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed yesterday. Russian flows increased slightly, averaging 218 mm cm/day, compared to 213 mm cm/day on Tuesday. By contrast, Norwegian flows dropped to 312 mm cm/day on average, compared to 325 mm cm/day on Tuesday, due to planned maintenance. While uncertainty on the payment of Russian gas in rubles continued to lend some support, the drop in coal prices (-1.01% for API2 1st nearby prices, -1.96% for Cal 2023 prices) provided downward pressure, particularly on the far curve.

At the close, NBP ICE June 2022 prices dropped by 3.250 p/th (-1.75%), to 181.980 p/th, equivalent to €73.732/MWh. TTF ICE June 2022 prices were up by 36 euro cents (+0.39%), closing at €94.538/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices dropped by €1.98 (-2.50%), closing at €77.442/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 11.98%, to €72.254/MWh; July 2022 prices increased by 6.25%, to €69.003/MWh.

The drop in coal and EUA prices pulled the maximum coal switching level to €103.59/MWh yesterday (down from €106.30/MWh on Tuesday) and the average coal switching level to €79.26/MWh (down from €81.14/MWh on Tuesday). Reflecting a more comfortable spot balance (European day-ahead prices continue to trade below month-ahead prices), TTF ICE June 2022 prices are currently almost right in the middle of the range set by these two levels. The fact that they remain below the 5-day average suggests that a decline is more likely. But, for that, the market needs more clarity on the payment of Russian gas in rubles.

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ES-gas
June 22, 2022

Concerns on supply continue to support prices

European gas prices continued to increase yesterday, still supported by concerns on supply. Russian flows stabilized at their weak levels yesterday, averaging 104 mm cm/day.…
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