Prices strongly up on fears of disruption of Russian (pipeline and LNG) flows
European gas prices increased strongly yesterday, ignoring the continuation of Russia pipeline gas exports to Western Europe (which even increased to 258 mm cm/day yesterday,…
European gas prices weakened slightly yesterday, despite the further rise in Asia JKM prices (+8.10% on the spot, to €80.761/MWh, +1.27% for the November 2021 contract, to €80.116/MWh). The drop seems to have been triggered by profit taking by financial participants after the strong increases of the previous session.
On the spot supply side, Russian flows weakened yesterday, averaging 313 mm cm/day, compared to 317 mm cm/day on Monday. Norwegian flows were also down, to 279 mm cm/day on average, compared to 290 mm cm/day on Monday, due to planned maintenance works.
At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices dropped by 3.550 p/th day-on-day (-1.87%), to 186.100 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were down by 154 euro cents (-2.04%) at the close, to €73.782/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by 50 euro cents (-1.17%), closing at €42.561/MWh, and maintaining a comfortable spread against the coal parity price (€34.717/MWh).
European gas prices are down again this morning. However, as fundamentals remain bullish, the drop should be limited, particularly as prices could benefit from technical supports (€70.247/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €41.520/MWh on TTF Cal 2022).