Sharp drop in European prices
European gas prices dropped significantly yesterday, both on the spot and the curve. With spot fundamentals almost unchanged, the bearish movement seems to have been…
Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription
Ask for a free trial here
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
European spot gas prices increased yesterday, supported mainly by lower Norwegian supply. Indeed, Norwegian flows were significantly down, averaging 275 mm cm/day, compared to 309 mm cm/day on Friday, due to an unplanned outage at the Troll field. By contrast, Russian supply jumped to 331 mm cm/day on average (compared to 271 mm cm/day on Friday) as Nord Stream 1 flows gas flows returned to normal after planned maintenance. Curve prices were also up as the rise in oil prices, Asia JKM prices and parity prices with coal for power generation (both EUA and coal prices were up) has raised both their ceiling price and their floor price.
At the close, NBP ICE August 2021 prices increased by 4.550 p/th day-on-day (+5.14%), to 92.990 p/th. TTF ICE August 2021 prices were up by 139 euro cents (+3.92%) at the close, to €36.914/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 39 euro cents (+1.55%), closing at €25.790/MWh.
Today, the market will take an interest in the auction for interruptible capacity through Ukraine. But this auction is likely not to allocate any rights for additional transport of Russian gas in August as was the case in the last 10 such monthly offerings. European gas prices could therefore continue to increase, particularly as Norwegian supply is expected to remain low due to planned maintenance works at Troll. However, technical resistances (€37.423/MWh on TTF August 2021 and €26.057/MWh on TTF Cal 2022) could contribute to limit gains.