We were trying to find explanations for the wait-and-see attitude of the markets yesterday. It didn’t take long for this attitude to be shattered: energy prices literally soared as the fighting in Ukraine intensified. This led to a rally in the bond markets and the dollar and a plunge in the equity markets. This has been particularly the…
The change of reference contract has brought Brent 1st-nearby back below $100/b, but it has already resumed its march back through that level. There is a special meeting of the International Energy Agency today, giving credence to the now quasi-official rumour of a possible 60mb release, half from US strategic reserves, half from a collection of OECD…
European gas prices were very volatile yesterday, torn between the continuation of Russian gas exports (which averaged 247 mm cm/day yesterday, compared to 248 mm cm/day on Friday) and the tightening of sanctions (including the blocking of certain Russian banks’ access to the SWIFT international payment system) which suggests that at some point these exports…
The European power spot prices continued to rise yesterday, supported by high gas prices and forecasts of a wind shortage. The day-ahead prices averaged 255.45€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +31.25€/MWh day-on-day. The German discount to the French prices reduced to 28.61€/MWh, much lower than the 78.25€/MWh seen Monday of last week. The…
While the fighting in Ukraine is intensifying, financial markets seem to be calming down somewhat. Equity markets trimmed their losses in Europe yesterday, fell little in the US (with the Nasdaq even rising) and rose in Asia. One explanation is the sharp fall in long rates and even more so in real terms, as nominal rates…
