Sharp price drop on milder weather and higher LNG supply

European gas prices dropped significantly yesterday, pressured by milder weather, higher LNG supply and profit taking. Prices have even ignored the drop in Russian supply to 236 mm cm/day on average (compared to 251 mm cm/day on Wednesday) due the drop in flows via Ukraine, while flows via Poland into Mallnow remained at 0. On…

US equity market hits a new record high

Just after I sent the News yesterday (The year 2021 in 10 charts…), I was already regretting not highlighting the new performance of the equity market, especially in the US. The S&P 500 hit a new record yesterday and may end the year with a 30% gain. Its outperformance of the global index is the strongest…

Christmas outages

ICE Brent crude prices rebounded, with ICE Brent February contract touching 75 $/b while time spreads were back in backwardation. Indeed, outages in OPEC countries continue to stack, with Libyan production likely to be down by 0.8 mb/d due to political tensions between the NOC and the oil ministry. Yesterday, we also learned that Shell had…

EUAs retreated as a consequence of surging power and gas margin calls

The European power spot prices dropped yesterday amid expectations of weaker demand and surging wind output. The day-ahead prices averaged 357.14€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -58.65€/MWh from the previous day. Despite a mid-day (short-lived) recovery, the EUAs eroded 5% on Wednesday in a retreat mostly attributed to traders offloading allowances to raise…

Europe Q1 2022 prices dropped to more “rational” levels

European gas spot and Q1 2022 prices dropped yesterday, pressured by profit taking and the drop in Asia JKM prices (-4.30% on the spot, to €129.878/MWh, -7.09% for the February 2022 contract, to €138.653/MWh). By contrast, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2022 prices were up, reducing the spread against Q1 2022 prices as ongoing weak stock…

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