Downward adjustment of the Russia-Ukraine-NATO risk premium

Despite a bullish start on prospects of steady gas for power demand after a further downward revision in the 2022 French nuclear output target by EDF, European gas prices ended Tuesday’s trading session in negative territory as the risk premium linked to the Russia-Ukraine-NATO clash started to be slashed in the afternoon after the French…

Retreating gas prices offset part of worsening nuclear outlook

The European power spot prices posted slight gains yesterday, buoyed by expectations of weaker wind generation and French nuclear availability. The day-ahead prices averaged 185.69€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +14.43€/MWh day-on-day. The EUAs went back and forth on Tuesday, surging to a new record high at 98.49€/t in the first minutes of…

Prices ease in the hope of an end to the crisis with Russia

Crude oil prices eased quite significantly following the French President’s visit to Russia. There was nothing concrete, however, other than Vladimir Putin’s reported promise not to escalate the crisis with Ukraine on his own initiative. The $3-4/b drop in the price of Brent gives an idea of the geopolitical risk premium currently being built in. That said,…

US 10-year yield closes in on 2%

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 1.96% yesterday before easing slightly. It has not crossed 2% since July 2019; perhaps tomorrow when the January US inflation rate is released? Equity markets are holding up well, supported by good corporate results and easing energy prices. In general, markets are calmer this week. The EUR/USD exchange rate is…

Power curve prices hold steady, spot prices down on strong wind speeds

French nuclear availability failed to reach the 50 GW mark once again as the restart of the Dampierre 1 reactor was postponed to 5 Feb yesterday. But the impact on spot prices was offset by expectations of a strong rebound in wind power generation which dragged DE spot prices well below neighboring countries. On the…

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