US crude draws maintain prices

Brent prompt prices stayed at 61$/b on Monday and early Tuesday led by a drop in US crude oil inventories of 3.5 mb, according to the API survey. Indian fuel demand saw its first monthly decline in January, led by jet fuel losses. Indian refining runs should be slightly lower than 5 mb/d in January.…

Fears of a return in inflation will accompany the recovery

The rally in US stocks was interrupted yesterday, mainly on inflation fears that have been strengthening significantly since Joe Biden unveiled his $1.9tn stimulus plan. The key question is whether the rise in inflation that should accompany the recovery is strong enough to push bond yields sharply higher, destabilize financial markets and trigger a U-turn…

EUA hit fresh record high near 40€/t before slightly retreating

The European power spot prices significantly rose yesterday, lifted by forecasts of falling wind output and below-average temperatures. Prices jumped to 64.32€/MWh (+18.25€/MWh) in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, while the surging gas prices pushed the clean gas costs back above the clean coal costs. The dropping temperatures strengthened the French power consumption by…

European gas prices extended gains

European gas prices increased significantly yesterday, still supported by the strong drop in temperatures. The rise in EUA and coal prices (which increased parity prices with coal for power generation) provided additional bullish pressure, particularly for far curve prices. Prices continued to ignore the easing in Asia JKM spot prices (which fell to €21.805/MWh yesterday,…

Rallying by default

At 61 $/b, Brent prompt futures are now at their 7th consecutive positive session, boosted by a weakening dollar and Libyan output unable to ramp-up due to political instabilities. Furthermore, North Sea oil output will fall by 0.13 mb/d in March, based on the provisional lifting schedule, at 1.7 mb/d. After Russia reduced exports to Europe…

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