Sovereign hedge unwind?

Crude prices rapidly recovered from last week’s slumpy yesterday, with ICE Brent front-month contract rallying by more than 5%, to reach 69.3 $/b on early Tuesday. More interestingly, the whole curve rallied, with longer-dated time spreads such as Dec-21/Dec-22 gaining as much as 60 cents intraday, from 3.2 $/b. Indeed, on Monday, Mexico’s state-owned producer PEMEX…

Markets erase last week’s losses

Equity markets and commodity prices rebounded sharply yesterday as the dollar lost ground: the exchange rate against the euro rose to around 1.1750. The bond market is more cautious with a stable US 10-year rate just above 1.25%, before the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week. The fact that China no longer has any…

EUAs posted slight daily gains

The European power spot prices were mixed yesterday, decreasing in France (-5.99€/MWh day-on-day) on expectations of weaker demand but sharply rising in Germany (+18.71€/MWh), Belgium (+5.30€/MWh) and the Netherlands (+50.01€/MWh) amid forecasts of dropping wind generation.  The EUAs traded sideways on Thursday, rising alongside the gas market in the morning with additional support from the…

Weak INE crude expiry in China

Crude oil prices in Europe and the US continued to climb, to reach 76 $/b for the ICE Brent September contract. On the opposite of the spectrum, INE crude, Shanghai’s medium sour crude future expired for September’s contract at a significantly lower level than previous trading sessions, likely to reflect the growing concerns around a recent…

Bulls keep control of global gas prices

Natural gas prices continued to rise to record highs on Thursday with TTF prices trading above €40/MWh for the first time ever while JKM prices are approaching 8-year seasonal highs and are keeping European LNG supply tight (see below chart). Time spreads also traded in unchartered territories with the TTF Q4 21-Q1 22 spread nearing…

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