Busy day before Thanksgiving in the US

Markets are hesitant: US bond yields eased after approaching their recent highs yesterday. The 10-year bond touched 1.68%. The economic indicators continue to show a solid global economic recovery, which carries serious inflationary risks, and which could change the hitherto very confident analysis of central banks on the transitory nature of these risks. Thus, the PMIs came out on the rise or almost stable at high levels in November, including in the countries of the euro zone and in particular Germany, where the threat of the pandemic is growing. On the other hand, Covid data continues to deteriorate and is now showing a rebound also in the US. In most countries with high vaccination rates, containment measures should be avoided, but some countries are still facing severe strain on their hospital capacity and must cope. 

The economic calendar is very busy today in the US before the Thanksgiving long weekend: durable goods orders and household consumption in October, final figures from the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey and jobless claims before the Fed Minutes this evening. The main question: was an acceleration of tapering already discussed at the last meeting? 

Today’s chart shows, drawn from the last INSEE business survey, the spectacular surge in French companies’ outlook for their sales prices to levels not seen since the 1970s… The German IFO survey will also be released later today and the 3 parties set to make up Germany’s next government will present their coalition agreement.