European prices keep their uptrend

European gas prices rebounded on Friday, supported by technical buying after the strong drop of the previous session as the uptrend (fueled by low stock levels and uncertainty on the commercial start date of Nord Stream 2) is not yet invalidated. Russian flows were stable on Friday, averaging 318 mm cm/day, above the levels of end August (313 mm cm/day). Norwegian flows increased again, to 299 mm cm/day on average (compared to 288 mm cm/day on Thursday), as planned maintenance works ended. 

Asia JKM prices (-2.11% on the spot, to €71.087/MWh) and parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were up) sent mixed signals. 

At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices increased by 4.420 p/th day-on-day (+2.79%), to 162.800 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were up by 185 euro cents (+2.93%) at the close, to €65.103/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 66 euro cents (+1.69%), closing at €40.040/MWh, and maintaining a comfortable spread against the coal parity price (€34.686/MWh).

Today, the market could focus on the monthly auctions for transportation capacity at the Mallnow interconnection point, as the level of booking by Gazprom could give an idea about its strategy for the coming weeks. Some key technical supports should be monitored today (€63.916/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €39.833/MWh on TTF Cal 2022). As long as prices remain above these levels, the uptrend will be confirmed.