Falling gas prices and unsettled weather weigh on EU power curves

European power prices tracked losses in natural gas and coal prices on Monday, while EUA prices sent neutral signals. Very strong wind power generation in northwest Europe weighed on spot prices, especially in Germany where they continued to trade much below France where nuclear generation failed to reach the 50 GW mark again notably with the postponement of the Dampierre 1 rector restart until 2 Feb. And France power supply will not benefit from additional CCGT capacity at Landivisiau before the end of Q1-22 as the startup of this new plant has been postponed to 21 March.

Spot prices in EUR/MWh for delivery on 1 Feb 2022

Spot prices could be supported by a drop in German wind power generation in the coming two days while French nuclear generation remains stuck at 48 GW this morning. A further drop in gas prices on weak demand prospects and rising pipeline gas supply from Russia could continue to weigh on curve contracts while we expect EUA prices to trade sideways to bearish again with technical resistances around the €90/ton mark.

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