EUAs extended their rally while power short-term prices faded

The European power spot prices continued to however just above 200€/MWh for today, although slightly lower than Friday due the retracing gas market and forecasts of strong solar generation. The day-ahead prices averaged 216.52€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -8.84€/MWh from Friday and -1.88€/MWh week-on-week, but the picture could turn south today as a sudden and quite significant wind surge is expected in Germany from tomorrow while the Belgian and French nuclear availabilities are both forecasted to improve in the upcoming days.

The power forward prices were mixed on Friday, the front curve contracts posting losses amid comfortable LNG supply, weakening demand and forecasts of high renewable production while the lingering concerns over Russian gas supply halt and bleak nuclear availability outlook buoyed further the back end of the curve, with numerous pointing out the large and widening Cal23 Germany-France spread.

The carbon prices ended their bullish week with another upward session as continuous buying lifted the benchmark above 90€/t. If most participants agreed that the ascend was induced by speculative and technical buying as no particular fundamental bullish driver materialized last week, some also suggested that the carbon market might have received support also from increased coal-based power generation hedging on one side, and from the ongoing discussions over the Fit for 55 reform package on the other as Parliament’s rapport Peter Liese recently stated that he was considering stricter changes to the EU ETS than previously presented, such as a steeper 4.7% LRF and a MSR threshold reduced to 700mt. The EUA Dec.22 closed the week at 91.54€/t, +2.64€/t from Thursday and +7.09€/t (+8.4%) week-on-week. If technical factors are suggesting the bullish momentum of the emissions prices remains strong, the benchmark contract is now in overbought territory, which could point to looming correction.<figurewidth=”90%” height=”90%”></figurewidth=”90%”>