EUAs broke above recent resistances on gas gains

The power spot prices fade yesterday in northwestern Europe, weighted by forecasts of higher German wind production, French nuclear availability and hydro generation, although the stronger demand and rising fuels and carbon prices may have limited the losses. The day-ahead prices averaged 175.09 in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -25.32€/MWh day-on-day.

The EUAs finally settled above 60€/t on Monday in a bullish session driven by low gas supply and disappointing gas capacity auctions. The Dec.21 contract jumped by nearly 3% in the first hours of trading to the day’s high of 61.12€/t as a lack of increased Russian gas flow into Europe despite Putin’s recent announcement and Gazprom not booking additional capacity in the daily auction buoyed the gas market. Slightly retreating afterward but recovering at the end of the session, the carbon benchmark contract eventually settled at 60.63€/t, +1.24€/t from Friday’s close. The carbon prices are retreating this morning, the gas and emissions markets likely taking a breath after yesterday’s gains, but the 60€/t now turned support could cap the losses.

The power forward prices unsurprisingly mirrored the upward move of the gas and carbon markets and posted moderate gains along the curve.