EUAs and power prices faded amid warmer weather forecasts and waning gas prices

The European power spot prices continued to fade yesterday amid strong renewable production forecasted for today, the German prices dropping below the clean gas cost (for 38% efficiency coal power plants) as the country is expected to observe a wind production rising up to 40GW this morning. The day-ahead prices averaged 171.14€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -24.93€/MWh day-on-day.

The EUAs fell by 2€/t on Wednesday morning, pressured by forecasts of milder weather a waning gas market on news of increased LNG supply. Poland’s first EUA auction of the year cleared a premium on the secondary market, marking the first primary sale to do so in 2022. The Dec.22 benchmark contract managed to partly recover in the afternoon and eventually closed at 92.09€/t, -0.58€/t from Tuesday’s settlement. The carbon prices are retreating this morning, tracking further weakness in the gas market, but EUAs seems indecisive on which direction to take and we could see prices continue to hover above the 80€/t resistance today.

Meanwhile the power forward prices mirrored the early losses of the gas and carbon markets, with most contracts edging down from the previous day’s settlement.

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