EnergyScan

Carbon prices fell deeper amid weaker oil and equities

The European power spot prices for today rose compared to Friday amid expectations of lower temperatures, dropping nuclear availability and weaker wind output. Prices reached 49.58€/MWh on average in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +1.95€/MWh from Friday.

The French power consumption reached 56.56GW on average over the last working day of last week, +1.09GW from Thursday due to the falling temperatures. The country’s nuclear generation remained stable at 43.13GW (-0.01GW dod). The German wind production continued to fade, averaging 13.28GW on Friday and reaching 5.60GW by Saturday. The wind output is expected to remain below 5GW until Wednesday, before nearly doubling on Thursday.

EUAs opened 0.41€/t down from Thursday’s settlement on the last session of last week, driven by the bearish momentum of the day prior’s late fall and the dropping equity and oil prices. The emissions prices overall traded sideways afterward, with a slight and short-lived rebound after the German auction cleared with a 0.07€/t discount to the secondary market but decent 1.83 bid coverage, but eroded nearly 0.70€/t at the end of the session to eventually settle at 37.28€/t, -0.98€/t from Thursday and -0.12€/t from the previous week.

Meanwhile, the ICE finally published the 2021 auction calendar for the United Kingdom new ETS. The first auction for United Kingdom Allowances (UKA) will be held on Wednesday 19 May 2021 with the following sales held every other week. The launch date of the UKA Futures is also scheduled on May 19th while the UKA Daily Futures will be tradable from May 21st.

The power prices continued to post losses along the curve on Friday, tracking the bearish underlying gas contracts and falling carbon prices.

Regarding the Belgian nuclear situation, Engie has halted preparation work for 20-year lifetime extensions of two nuclear reactors in Belgium. Belgium’s nuclear phase-out is set to remove 5.93 GW of capacity by 2025. Last September the country’s new coalition government committed to the phase-out but kept the possibility of life extensions for two units open, with a final decision due by November 2021

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