A long-due recovery of carbon prices

The European power spot prices slightly eased yesterday, weighed by the retreating gas market and forecasts of increased solar generation. The day-ahead prices averaged 449.58€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -33.80€/MWh day-on-day but still +182.88€/MWh from the previous week.

The carbon prices posted their largest daily gain ever recorded on Tuesday, recouping the last four days’ losses as market participants considered the historic fall of EUAs over and started to price an increased coal-fired power generation as a result of the EU short-term measures to cut its dependence on Russian gas supply. Germany indeed officially disregarded the possibility of extending the lifetime of its last nuclear reactors yesterday and is instead considering bringing coal units from its back up reserve. The European Commission playing down a potential intervention on the carbon market or eased Fit for 55 reforms might have provided additional support. The EUA Dec.22 closed at 68.51€/t, a massive +10.21€/t (+17.5%) from Monday’s settlement. The carbon prices are pursuing their sharp recovery this morning, possibly aiming at their 100-day moving average now (77.77€/t at the time of writing).

In the power market, the forward prices observed mixed variations yesterday, the short-term contracts correcting alongside the retracing gas market while the back-end of the curve pursued its ascend as the rebounding emissions prices offset the bearish pressure.