Price rebound. US stocks expected to fall

The price of Brent crude oil is back near its recent highs, just below $73/bbl. It is supported by the even slower than expected return of production (only 20%) in the Gulf of Mexico after the damage caused by Hurricane Ida. The prompt timespread has risen to 80 cents/b from 60 cents/b a few days ago. 

According to API estimates, crude oil stocks fell by 2.9mb in the US, less than the market expected (-4.7mb). Product stocks are also expected to fall sharply, as refining capacity has also been hit hard by the hurricane.

 

Finally, there are tensions at production sites and ports in Libya, which could have a negative impact on production and exports. All in all, the fundamentals remain rather favourable for prices.

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