OPEC views diverge

The EIA confirmed a decline in commercial crude stocks of about 6.7 mb, maintaining September delivery ICE Brent contracts at elevated levels, 74.5 $/b. There is increasing uncertainty around the OPEC meeting today as the Russian and Saudi delegations’ opinions diverge. We still believe they will deliver a 500 kb/d production increase. If that does not materialize, we think prices will remain at current levels, as the current financial length in futures contracts is already elevated.