Libyan oil disruption push crude prices further high

Brent first nearby prices moved further north of the $110/b mark and recorded a fourth consecutive session in positive territory with an intraday high at $114.84/b on Easter Monday, supported by a drop in Libyan oil production and expectations of a progressive loosening of Covid restrictions in Shanghai.

Indeed, Libya’s National Oil Corp warned on Monday of a “painful wave of closures” and declared force majeure on some output after protesters gathered at some production sites demanding Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah to quit. Production losses are estimated above 500,000 bpd, around half of total Libya’s oil production (see below chart).

Ongoing talks over an EU ban on Russian oil products could continue to provide some support to crude oil prices on the back of the Russian offensive over the Donbass region in Ukraine. The French economy minister Bruno Le Maire declared this morning that he hopes to convince EU state members to impose an embargo on Russian oil in the coming weeks.