The Fed calms things down

Equity markets continue to rally; the S&P 500 has erased half of its losses. US long rates stabilised as Fed members tried to put out the fire sparked by Jerome Powell’s statements last week: none of them are now suggesting that the Fed funds rate hike could be as high as 50bp in March and everyone seems to suggest that the market is right to expect 5 rate hikes this year. 

The private employment data compiled by ADP could reinforce this moderation trend in the short term as two elements suggest that it could be bad in January: on the one hand, it has deviated from the official data in recent months. On the other hand, the sharp rise in jobless claims suggests that the Omicron wave has had a real negative impact on the labour market. Indeed, the White House has been setting the stage for a poor January employment figure.

EnergyScan economics news

Eurozone inflation data will be watched closely ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. The available country data suggests that the decline was less than expected in January. The consensus is 4.4%, but analysts are leaning towards 4.8% after 5% in December. Our own estimate is 4.6%. The euro has already anticipated a stronger-than-expected figure and is rising towards USD 1.1270.

Share this news :

You might also read :

ES-economy
June 23, 2021

Powell drives the point home

His written remark released on Monday had already shown he wanted to mitigate or even erase the effect of the “dots” on the market. His…
ES-oil
July 23, 2021

As if nothing happened

Brent prompt prices are back to their level of the start of the week: above $73/b. The sharp downward correction on concerns over the Delta variant…
Join EnergyScan

Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription

Ask for a free trial here

Don’t have an account yet? 

[booked-calendar]