Deceptive rebound of activity in China

Activity seemed to accelerate in China in October: +3.5% after +3.1% yoy for industrial production and +4.9% after +4.4% yoy for retail sales. In fact, only industrial production returned to normal growth for the month, as the energy supply problems were resolved. But the chart below clearly shows that this is not the case for retail sales, as the pandemic continues to restrict household consumption.

Energyscan economics news

In Japan, GDP contracted sharply in Q3 (-0.8% qoq), which is fuelling some… optimism in anticipation of a new stimulus package, the contours of which are expected to be specified this week. 

On the other side of the Atlantic, inflation is undermining consumer morale according to the University of Michigan survey: the US confidence index fell to its lowest level in 10 years, while one-year inflation expectations reached their highest level since July 2008. The US 10-year yield stabilised around 1.55% and the USD held its gains against the euro (EUR/USD @ 1.145).

Today’s events include the Eurozone’s external trade report, Mrs. Lagarde’s appearance before the European Parliament and the Philadelphia Fed’s index. Key figures expected from the US and the UK this week.

Share this news :

You might also read :

ES-economy
November 3, 2021

Markets await the Fed with an eye on China

There was little significant movement in the financial markets, although equities continued to rise, with the CAC 40 breaking its record high from the internet…
ES-economy
December 16, 2021

Managing expectations

The latest Fed meeting did not surprise market consensus and implied market rates. Indeed, on many aspects, bond yields and interest rate futures were in…
Join EnergyScan

Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription

Ask for a free trial here

Don’t have an account yet? 

[booked-calendar]