Slight price increase

European gas prices increased yesterday. Spot prices were supported by lower Norwegian supply (322 mm cm/day on average, compared to 341 mm cm/day on Friday) due to planned maintenance works. Russian flows were also lower, to 250 mm cm/day on average, compared to 255 mm cm/day on Friday. The rebound in JKM prices (+1.81%, to €99.717/MWh, on the spot; +1.32%, to €98.710/MWh, for the December 2021 contract) and in parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were up) lent support to curve prices.

At the close, NBP ICE November 2021 prices increased by 4.010 p/th day-on-day (+1.83%), to 223.230 p/th. TTF ICE November 2021 prices were up by €1.31 (+1.49%) at the close, to €88.643/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by €1.04 (+1.93%), closing at €55.089/MWh, and the spread against the coal parity price (€34.647/MWh, +4.12%) narrowed slightly.

Despite their rebound, TTF ICE November 2021 prices did not manage to break the resistance of the 20-day average yesterday. They are up this morning, but the drop in China coal prices (down again today) should limit the upside potential. Prices could therefore trade today between the 5-day average and the 20-day average, although a rise towards the 5-day High is still a possibility in the very short term.