EnergyScan

Prices weakened again on the spot and the near curve

European gas spot and near curve prices weakened again yesterday, pressured by the drop in Asia JKM prices (-3.30% on the spot, to €78.098/MWh, -1.69% for the November 2021 contract, to €78.763/MWh) and profit taking. Prices on the far curve were more resilient, supported by the rise in parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were up).

On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows weakened slightly yesterday, averaging 311 mm cm/day, compared to 313 mm cm/day on Tuesday. Norwegian flows were slightly up, to 282 mm cm/day on average, compared to 279 mm cm/day on Tuesday. 

At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices dropped by 4.990 p/th day-on-day (-2.68%), to 181.110 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were down by 209 euro cents (-2.83%) at the close, to €71.692/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 3 euro cents (+0.06%), closing at €42.587/MWh, remaining significantly above the coal parity price (€35.565/MWh).

European gas prices are down again this morning. To know if this is the beginning of a downtrend (and therefore a reversal of the uptrend valid since end August), prices must fall below key technical supports (€68.963/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €41.366/MWh on TTF Cal 2022).

EnergyScan - Gas power markets
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